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President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The last Summit of the Atlantic Alliance saw, at least initially, a clear divergence between the United States and NATO’s European allies.

 For President Trump, who is above all a businessman, budgets and investments count, rather than strategic doctrines, about which there was very little talk.

  The US President, who arrived at the Summit with premeditated and carefully-considered delay, polemicized especially with Germany, saying that its low spending for defence makes it “prisoner” of Russia.

  President Trump cannot get over and deal with the NORD STREAM pipeline, headed by Mathias Warnig, former director of STASI in Dresden where, at the time, Vladimir Putin worked for the KGB, the intelligence service that was the “master” of STASI.

 He wants Europeans to buy the North American shale gas and oil – but it is a very difficult goal to reach.

 Europe is disputed by two energy oligopolists. Continue reading “President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Trump e la NATO, Trump e la guerra commerciale con la Cina – Giancarlo Elia Valori

L’ultimo summit dell’Alleanza Atlantica ha visto, almeno inizialmente, una netta divaricazione tra gli Usa e gli alleati europei della NATO.

 Per il presidente Trump, che è soprattutto un businessman, contano i bilanci e gli investimenti, prima che le dottrine strategiche, di cui peraltro pochissimo si è parlato.

  Il presidente americano, che è arrivato al summit con studiato ritardo, ha polemizzato soprattutto con la Germania, dicendo che la sua bassa spesa per la difesa la rendeva “prigioniera” della Russia.

  A Trump non va giù il gasdotto NORD STREAM, diretto da Mathias Warnig, già dirigente della STASI a Dresda, dove operava in quegli stessi anni, per il KGB, il servizio “padrone” della Stasi, Vladimir Putin.

 Vuole che gli europei comprino lo shale gas and oil nordamericano. Ma è un obiettivo difficilissimo.

 Europa, contesa da due oligopolisti dell’energia. Continue reading “Trump e la NATO, Trump e la guerra commerciale con la Cina – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Chinese yuan has already plummeted to the historic lows of the last seven months as against the dollar and nothing prevents us from thinking that the Chinese government is organizing a real devaluation of the yuan-renmimbi.

 In fact, on June 27 last, the Chinese central bank set the parity as against the dollar at 6.596, by also cutting additional 391 points compared to the levels of the previous day.

 A move that could largely expand the already significant size of China’s foreign trade, as well as avoid further tension with the USA on trade tariffs, and finally increase and differentiate Chinese exports.

 This does not necessarily mean, however, that China really wants to significantly and clearly devalue the yuan. We rather fear that this threat is a sword of Damocles to be placed right on President Trump’s head.

 The problem is, above all, of a geopolitical rather than of a financial nature.

 As early as the 1990s, the US ruling classes have ridden  their project of globalization, which has inevitably been matched by universal financialization. Continue reading “Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

La Corea del Nord, gli USA e l’accordo di Singapore – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Molti sono i punti essenziali della trattativa Usa-Pyongyang che sono stati trattati, sia pure brevemente, nell’incontro di Singapore tra Kim Jong-Un e il presidente USA Donald J. Trump.

Non è stata certo una photo-opportunity, ma non è stato, inevitabilmente, un accordo già maturo tra le due parti.

Sulla denuclearizzazione, niente di nuovo sotto il sole, ma molto di politicamente importante. E nuovo, anche rispetto alle opposte retoriche di Usa e Corea del Nord. I simboli contano, in politica estera e, per quello che ne sappiamo, Trump e Kim Jong-Un si sono piaciuti, razionali, brutali e franchi come entrambi sono.

I decisori di Pyongyang hanno però, da tempo, valutato i loro realistici piani per l’uscita dal nucleare militare del loro Paese.

Kim Jong Un, in effetti, decide, cinque anni fa, la sua politica di byung jin, ovvero quella riguardante la crescita parallela del sistema militare N e dell’economia civile della Corea del Nord; avendo soprattutto verificato che questo è il solo modo, in quel momento, di portare gli Usa al tavolo della trattativa. Continue reading “La Corea del Nord, gli USA e l’accordo di Singapore – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Iran and the nuclear deal after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 The first operational implementation of the Agreement between P5 + 1 and Iran, namely the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed on July 15, 2015, dates back to January 16, 2016.

 The data from the latest quarterly IAEA written report on Iran’s nuclear facilities provides information about some interesting new topics: the construction of the heavy-water Arak reactor, for example, has been stopped by the Iranian government.

 Moreover, the Shi’ite Republic has decided voluntarily not to continue the testing of the equipment needed to operate with the IR-40 centrifuges which had initially been designed for the Arak reactor.

 Furthermore, the technological materials and the nuclear fuel that had to be used for the Arak reactor were kept in safe and sure places under the ongoing monitoring of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency.

 Moreover, Iran has always and continuously informed the Agency of the presence and production of heavy water at the Heavy Water Production Plant in Khondab, near Arak, which is expected to produce approximately 16 tons of heavy water per year.

 These are IAEA data and information, which are also confirmed by official sources and not by the Iranian Republic. Continue reading “Iran and the nuclear deal after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

L’Iran e il nucleare dopo l’uscita degli USA dal JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 La prima implementazione operativa dell’Accordo tra il P5+1 e l’Iran, ovvero il Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, firmato il 15 luglio 2015, risale al 16 gennaio 2016.

 I dati dell’ultima relazione scritta dalla IAEA sulle strutture nucleari di Teheran, testi che arrivano con periodicità trimestrale, afferma alcuni temi interessanti e nuovi: la costruzione del reattore di Arak ad acqua pesante, per esempio, è stata bloccata dal governo iraniano.

 Inoltre, la repubblica sciita non ha proseguito, volontariamente, la sperimentazione dei macchinari utili ad operare con le centrifughe di tipo IR-40 che erano state inizialmente progettate per Arak.

 I materiali tecnologici e il combustibile nucleare che dovevano essere usati per Arak sono stati, peraltro, conservati in luoghi sicuri e certi, sotto il continuo controllo della International Atomic Energy Agency viennese.

 Peraltro, la repubblica di Teheran ha sempre e continuativamente informato l’Agenzia della presenza e produzione di acqua pesante presso lo Heavy Water Production Plant di Khondab, vicino ad Arak, che dovrebbe produrre circa 16 tonnellate di acqua pesante all’anno. Continue reading “L’Iran e il nucleare dopo l’uscita degli USA dal JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

President Trump’s tariffs and duties and the transformation of the world economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

  The 45th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, keeps on repeating he wants to make America “great again”.

  Hence, first and foremost, he wants to reindustrialize his country which, in fact, is currently the world champion in  the loss of productive, manufacturing or industrial companies.

 The birth of a country that now consumes without producing much, namely the USA, materialized initially under Reagan’s Presidency, but continued rapidly with the successive Presidents.

 For example, at the end of the 1960s, the US industrial labour force was at least 35% of the total number of people employed, while currently this labour force is only 20%.

 Since 2001 over 70,500 companies with more than 500 employees have been closed down definitively.

 The Gospel of Matthew (4:1-11) perfectly clarifies the situation of the post-productive post-economy – if we can use this expression. Continue reading “President Trump’s tariffs and duties and the transformation of the world economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

I dazi di Donald Trump e la trasformazione dell’economia mondiale – Giancarlo Elia Valori

  Il 45° Presidente degli Stati Uniti, Donald J. Trump, vuole rendere, lo ripete continuamente, l’America “great again”.

  E quindi vuole, prima di tutto, reindustrializzare il suo Paese. Che è, infatti, il campione mondiale, oggi, della perdita di imprese produttive, manifatturiere o del secondario.

 La nascita di un Paese che consuma senza ormai produrre molto, gli Usa, si è materializzata all’inizio negli anni di Reagan, ma è continuata rapidamente con i Presidenti successivi.

 Per esempio, la forza-lavoro industriale americana, alla fine degli anni ’60, era almeno il 35% del totale degli occupati, oggi siamo appena al 20%.

 Oltre 70.500 imprese con più di 500 addetti sono state definitivamente chiuse, negli Stati Uniti, dal 2001 ad oggi.

 Il Vangelo di Matteo, 4,1-11, chiarisce qui perfettamente la situazione della post-economia post-produttiva, se possiamo usare questa formula. Continue reading “I dazi di Donald Trump e la trasformazione dell’economia mondiale – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

China, USA and North Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori

On October 21 last, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China began their joint exercises in the Sea of Okhotsk, the most suitable maritime area to hit the US bases in the Pacific.

 It may seem strange – but it is not so for those who look to the issue carefully- that in the same days there was a Sino-Russian joint naval-air-land action in the North Sea.

 It is by no mere coincidence.

 The Sino-Soviet joint operation in Asia took place after checking President Trump’s statements at the United Nations on September 19 last, when he had claimed he could “completely destroy” North Korea and its nuclear stations.

 The more Trump is in military contrast with North Korea, as well as with China and Russia, two  of the major military fleets after the United States – although this assessment is no longer fully true – the more Putin and Xi Jinping take joint action to indirectly defend North Korea, the terrestrial axis of their security against the possible US penetration from the Korean peninsula and the nearby areas. Continue reading “China, USA and North Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Cina, USA e Corea del Nord – Giancarlo Elia Valori

La Federazione Russa e la Repubblica Popolare Cinese hanno iniziato, il 21 ottobre scorso, le loro esercitazioni congiunte nel Mare di Okhotsk, l’area marittima più adatta a colpire le basi nel Pacifico degli Usa.

 Strano a dirsi, ma non certo strano a chi guardi con occhi attenti la questione, vi è stata negli stessi giorni una azione navale-aerea-terrestre congiunta sino-russa nel Mare del Nord.

 Chi ha occhi per vedere, osservi.

 L’operazione congiunta tra Pechino e Mosca in Asia è scattata dopo la verifica delle dichiarazioni del Presidente Trump all’ONU, il 19 settembre scorso, in cui egli sosteneva di poter “distruggere totalmente” la Corea del Nord e le sue postazioni nucleari.

 Più Trump si pone in un contrasto velatamente militare con Pyongyang, più Cina e Russia, due delle maggiori flotte militari dopo quella Usa, ma questa valutazione non è più del tutto sicura; più insomma Putin e Xi Jinping si muovono alla difesa indiretta di Pyongyang, asse terrestre della loro sicurezza rispetto alla possibile penetrazione Usa dalla penisola coreana e dalle aree vicine. Continue reading “Cina, USA e Corea del Nord – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Tension between North Korea and the United States – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The tension between the United States and North Korea is still mounting.

In fact, in mid-May, some North Korean executives accused the US intelligence services of having made an attempt on Kim Jong-un’s life.

Allegedly the operation started with CIA selecting a North Korean citizen, who had already had contacts with the South Korean intelligence services, and who had to use highly poisonous chemical substances against the North Korean leader.

In addition, the attacker was supposed to have had links with a Chinese company, namely Qingdao Nazca Trade Co.

It is also likely that the attempted assassination of the North Korean leader may be the result of an internal struggle for power in the country, but obviously – at a time of very high international tension – the North Korean propaganda lays emphasis only on the United States.

However, the new South Korean President Moon Jae-In – a human rights lawyer – has repeatedly stressed that he plans to work with President Donald Trump. Nevertheless he has also stressed that he is anyway open to negotiations with North Korea without any conditions, which is certainly not what the United States wants from him. Continue reading “Tension between North Korea and the United States – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Tensions regarding President Donald J. Trump – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 The relationship between President Trump and what is usually defined –  with Soviet terminology – as the American “deep State” is increasingly complex and conflicting.

 The reason  is easy to explain: Trump wants to avoid having tense relations with the Russian Federation, while the “deep State”, which is largely represented by the 17 US intelligence agencies, wants to restore tough and overall confrontation with Russia, as well as to avoid the materialization of the Russian Eurasian project with China, to regionalize China and finally shut in Russia between the Black Sea and Poland.

 This is probably the first time a US President is systematically delegitimized by the media but, above all, indirectly, by the intelligence structures of his country.

 The US intelligence is now part and parcel of the political game – a phenomenon regarding also other Western intelligence services –  and it operates at intelligence and media levels with well-known techniques: misinformation, media manipulation, fake news, defamation, information destabilization and, we could say, a kind of psychological war against its own country. Continue reading “Tensions regarding President Donald J. Trump – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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