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Israel in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Over the last two years alone, in complete silence, the Jewish State has already carried out over 200 airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

  North American unconfirmed sources also speak about Israeli support for Islamic “rebels” fighting against Bashar el Assad and his allies.

  They are supposedly 12 groups of so-called para-jihadist “rebels” operating in southern Syria, who oppose both the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and radical ISIS jihadist militants.

  Obviously the Israeli intelligence services closely monitor – with systems active 24 hours a day – the three bridges connecting the Golan Heights with Israel, which are constantly used by the Israeli armed forces to support both the Golan populations and the military operating permanently in those areas.

 Israel has named the “humanitarian support” to the region, including the aforementioned anti-Assad rebels, “Operation Good Neighbour”, but the real Israeli spearhead is the air missions in the Syrian skies, which have again much increased in recent times. Continue reading “Israel in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Syria’s future – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Many sources think that the most significant clashes in Syria are likely to end late this year.

 Probably the small clashes between the various ethnic groups and hence among their external points of reference  will not end yet. The bulk of armed actions, however, will certainly finish since now the areas of influence are stabilized.

 The first fact that stands out is that, despite everything, Bashar al-Assad’s forces have won.

 All the international actors operating on the ground – be they friends or foes – have no difficulty in recognizing it.

 Certainly neither Assad nor Russia alone have the strength to rebuild the country, but Western countries – especially those that have participated in the fight against Assad – and the other less involved countries plan to participate in the reconstruction process, with a view to influencing Syria, although peacefully this time.

 The military start of Assad’s victory was the Northwest campaign of the Syrian Arab Forces from October 2017 to February 2018. Continue reading “Syria’s future – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The strategic significance of the Syrian conflict – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Considering the quantity and virulence of the groups taking part in the Syrian war, which has been going on uninterruptedly for six years, in principle there are two possible scenarios.

 An unstable peace that will disrupt the Syrian political and territorial system – as is currently happening in the Lebanon – or a long war of attrition, as in the Balkans of the 1990s or currently in Ukraine or the Horn of Africa.

 A “long war” hiding the strategic and geopolitical void of those who have organized it.

 Initially the aim of the conflict was to prevent Syria from being open to the Iranian power projection onto the Mediterranean region but, in the event of a long war, no one will gain and no country will ever be in a position to obtain a geopolitical surplus from the current conflict in Syria.

 The cultural and military rifts are well-known: the division between Sunnis and Shiites – often craftily manipulated by both religious groups – the divide between religious and “secular” power – insofar as this distinction can be drawn in the Middle East – the division between the two emerging powers in the region, namely Turkey and Iran, and finally the division among the 68 old Western powers of the Coalition led by the United States and the Russian Federation.

  Hence the size and shape of the new Middle East will result from the analysis of the Syrian war.

  The West, which no longer has a true theory of war, interpret the clashes only through the headlines of its newspapers and the psychotic and irrational obsessions of its voters. Continue reading “The strategic significance of the Syrian conflict – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The significance of Iran’s presence in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

At least since 2014 the presence of Iranian forces in the Syrian war has certainly ensured both political stability and military success on the ground for Assad’s regime.

 Some Syrian sources maintain that since December 2013 Iran’s engagement in the Syrian conflict has cost at least 6 billion US dollars a year, while other Western sources think the financial support provided has been twice as much.

  With at least 3,200 soldiers and officers from the Revolutionary Guards and other Shiite semi-official organizations, composed mainly of Afghan and Pakistani militants, Iran is second only to the Russian Federation in terms of engagement in the Syrian war to support Assad.

 Moreover, Hezbollah – the Lebanese militant Shiite faction – is present in Syria with at least 4,500 soldiers and officers, but there are other Shiite groups, such as the People’s Mobilization Units (PMU), the former “popular defence brigades”, operating in the Syrian region.

 In all likelihood, it was Iran to persuade Russia to intervene in support of  Assad, but the logic of Russia’s presence in the Syrian war is much more complex than it may appear at first glance.

 In fact, the Russian Federation has placed the war against Daesh-Isis at the centre of its presence in the Syrian region, thus creating a new network of relations with the whole Arab world, including the one previously connected to the United States. Continue reading “The significance of Iran’s presence in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Russian Orthodox Church, the situation in Syria and the crisis in the Greater Middle East – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In a speech delivered on May 6 last, Patriarch Kirill – the Head of the Russian Orthodox Church – defined the Russian war in Syria as a conflict “against global terrorism” and hence suggested a “holy war” to free not only the Middle East, but also the entire Christian civilization, from this  “fierce and deceitful enemy”.

Russia as a “third Rome”, after the first falling and the second failing because it surrendered to the profane world.

Patriarch Kirill believes that Christians are in terrible danger in many countries – and this is the reason why the Head of the Russian Orthodox Church cherishes good memories of the meeting he had in Cuba with Pope Francis.

A meeting that, as Patriarch Kirill said, “took place in the right place and at the right time”. After one thousand years.

The Church of Rome has realized that modern society is failing and that an alliance of religions is needed to save the world.  This is an idea that the Patriarch of Moscow has always had and, after the USSR collapse, Russia can finally work freely with the West.

And Patriarch Kirill has certainly been the least pro-Soviet of the Orthodox Fathers. Continue reading “The Russian Orthodox Church, the situation in Syria and the crisis in the Greater Middle East – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Syria’s new position on the Russian scene – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Among the nine military bases currently used by the Russian Federation, so far the only one in Syria is Tartus, a naval facility classified by Russia as a “technical and material support point”, operating since 1971 thanks to an agreement with Hafez al-Assad’s Baathist Syria.

The Humaynim air base, however, is Syrian and, in any case, Russian aircraft and sensors are stationed there.

The Tartus base is a necessary supply and repair point for the initially Soviet and later Russian ships that were to transit through the base located in the Syrian territory to reach the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

The Tartus base can accommodate three ships at the same time and an Amur PM-138 class repair ship is stationed there. Nevertheless the base is not yet suitable for hosting, protecting and repairing the new large Russian warships.

Nevertheless the new agreement between the Russian and Syrian governments, signed last January, extends the concession of the base to the Russian Federation for further 49 years and allows the necessary works to make the Tartus base capable of repairing and supplying eleven ships at the same time. Most importantly, it grants to Russia sovereignty over the base territory and its waters. Continue reading “Syria’s new position on the Russian scene – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Hezbollah and the war in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The war in Syria against Assad’s Alawites and his post-Baathist State began with the people’s uprising of March-April 2011.

 Mass demonstrations in the traditional Sunni areas of Hama and Homs, to which the pro-government organizations responded with rallies supporting Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

 It was the usual pattern of the Arab Springs: civil unrest, mass and non-violent uprising, to which the regime was bound to react violently, thus leading to radicalization in which the jihad “foreign legion” set in.

 This should happen after the old Rais leaving and after the international organizations certifying it is a “democratic fight”.

  Gaddafi’s fall was triggered off by a small revolt of some prisoners’ relatives in Benghazi. Continue reading “Hezbollah and the war in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Additional considerations on Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

  A complex strategic game is underway between Russia, Iran, Syria and, consequently, between Assad’ supporters and the other actors of the current Syrian war balance.

 Firstly, note must be taken of the statements made by the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani who, on January 15 last, said that “the fragmentation of regional areas in the Middle East will anyway pave the way for the Takfiri forces (i.e. the “Infidels”) on all Islamic territories”. He also added, with an interesting nuance, that this runs counter to the interests of the whole Islamic world” – and hence Iran.

 In other words, Shamkhani, who speaks in the name and on behalf of the Supreme Leadership Authority and Supreme Leader, Rahbar Khamenei,  means two things: he means that Iran will fight for the integrity of Syria, and within its old borders, and that Iran is anyway ready to fight against the Takfiri, namely the “apostates”, both in the Shiite and in the Sunni world.

 Iran has no interest in setting a “democracy” fire to the Middle East, as conversely was the case for the United States with the notorious “Arab Springs” and the creation of the so-called “Caliphate” between Iraq and Syria. Continue reading “Additional considerations on Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The truce in Syria and the plans to cease hostilities – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The insurgency against Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite regime  began on March 15, 2015 in the framework of the Arab Springs – in that case designed to destabilize Saudi Arabia.

Unlike what had happened in the Maghreb region and in Egypt, Saudi Arabia managed the issue by putting severe pressures on the United States – the global managers of the “Arab Springs” – but, above all, by harshly repressing every internal rebellion.

The war in Syria coincided with the end of the reckless US plan to extend the “Arab Springs” to the whole Greater Middle East.

Rather than understanding that it was one of their defeats, the United States passively supported the Sunni jihad in Syria – and we cannot currently understand which their real goal was.

Was it to help the Saudi friends? Excessive. Was it the idea of democratizing the Arab world by using jihadists? Pure madness.
Was it to spite Iran by closing it into a Sunni pocket? And why? Continue reading “The truce in Syria and the plans to cease hostilities – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The current phase of conflict in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

While we are writing this article, much of South Aleppo has now been liberated by Bashar al-Assad’ Syrian Arab Army.

Jaish Al Fatah, which cooperates with the Al Nusra Front, namely the “Syrian section” of Al Qaeda, has now been ousted from the Southern districts of Aleppo and from most of the city suburbs. But it still keeps Idlib.

Jaish al Fatah is an “umbrella” organization of jihadists who fight against the Shiites, but not necessarily against Isis.

Assad’ Syrian Arab Army has completely liberated sixteen suburbs of Aleppo, while the anti-jihadist forces still attack some districts, including Karam al-Tarab and Amiriyah, so as to make Aleppo definitively safe and then move forward towards Idlib, still held by the jihadists.

Obviously Bashar al-Assad’s forces must also harshly oppose the expansion of the Turkish military forces operating in Northern Syria.

Furthermore, the Russian Aerospace Forces keep on bombing the Hama Province. Continue reading “The current phase of conflict in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The current Syrian issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 In spite of confidentiality, which is obvious in these cases, President Obama’s plan for Syria was announced a few days ago. Firstly, the secret Presidential directives aim at  conquering Mosul by mid-December next and the forces that will liberate the city will be some groups of the US Special Forces, in addition to five US-led Iraqi army divisions.

 Furthermore, the agreement between President Obama and the Head of the Autonomous Province of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massud Barzani,  envisages that: a) the Kurdish Peshmerga will attack Mosul from the North and from the East; b) the United States will ensure a safety zone from Mosul up to the borders of Barzani’s Kurdistan; c) the United States  will prevent the Shiite militias from taking part in military actions and will undertake not to let the Shiite militias enter  the cities with a Sunni majority.

 Incidentally, the plan for liberating Mosul is the same as the one developed by the United States to leave ISIS out of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah, which indeed failed, as you may recall. Continue reading “The current Syrian issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The ceasefire in force in Syria as from September 12, 2016 – Giancarlo Elia Valori

On Saturday, September 10, between Geneva and Munich, the traditional venues for the numberless negotiations on war in Syria, the US State Secretary,  John Kerry, and the Russian Foreign Minister, Serghei Lavrov, reached an agreement for truce among the various factions fighting for the spoils of the Middle East State.

 The agreement will enter into force as from the sunset of September 12 and it will last one week only.

  Who is concerned by the ceasefire? First and foremost Assad’s forces, namely the Syrian Arab Army, including its Russian and Iranian allies and the various groups of the Syrian Free Army, of which it is impossible to know the real size of its forces and its inconstant relationship with the other movements of the Syrian jihad.

  Hence the agreement regards neither Daesh-Isis nor the militia of Fateh al-Sham, the new name chosen by the  Al Nusra Front to distance itself  from Al Qaeda as much as possible. Continue reading “The ceasefire in force in Syria as from September 12, 2016 – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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