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The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the period from 2009 to 2013 when Hillary Clinton was US Secretary of State, Saudi Arabia contributed with at least 10 million US dollars to the Clinton Foundation.

  Especially in the phases when, incidentally, Hillary Clinton permitted the sale of advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia

  As stated by Prince Regent Mohammed Bin Salman in an interview released in 2016 to the Jordanian news agency “Petra”, Saudi Arabia also paid over 20% of Hillary Clinton’s election campaign.

  However, it also subsidized the other candidates to the US Presidency, although to a lesser extent.

  In the political campaign for the US Presidency, no foreign investor puts all his/her eggs in the same basket – just to follow a typical US piece of advice.

 Moreover, like Russia and other countries, also the Saudi Kingdom has always backed both US presidential candidates financially. Continue reading “The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Saudi Arabia, Iran and the probable end of the JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori

John Bolton, the current national security adviser of Trump’s Presidency who has replaced the already dismissed Gen. McMaster, believes that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is a “strategic defeat” for the United States.

 Bolton also believes that it would always be better to follow the example of the Osirak attack on June 7, 1981 with the Israeli Operation “Opera” (or Babylon) or the Israeli attack of 2007 on the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor in the Deir-ez-Zor area.

 A reactor, however, manufactured by North Korea.

 That was the operation Israel named “Outside the Box”.

 Hence, to quote again Bolton, “to stop Iran, bomb it”.

 Not so long ago, the idea of the US national security adviser was also to bomb North Korea just to stop its nuclear activity.

 How can the activities of immediate revenge on the South Korean territory be considered in the US strategic equation?

 “Collateral damage”, i.e. the destruction of the only credible ally, apart from Japan, throughout Southeast Asia. Continue reading “Saudi Arabia, Iran and the probable end of the JCPOA – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The power struggle within Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the current vision of the Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi national anti-corruption Commission “Nazaha” has worked very well.

The anti-corruption Nazaha is a complex organization, with a large set of international and local rules, always explicitly referring to the UN – and anyway international – best practice.

It will not be so easy to define Mohammed bin Salman’s fight against corruption as an “ideological operation” or, even worse, “primitive”.

The issue of corruption has been at the core of the Saudi political debate for years.

As early as 2013, the Riyadh Economic Forum had placed the issue of public and private corruption at the centre of Saudi government actions, while the Commission was established officially with King Abdullah’s Executive Order No. A/65 of March 2011.

A wide mandate having strong political impact, designed since its inception – even before the current Crown  Prince – to be the main tool for the King’s control over his vast and chaotic ruling class, regardless of their being blue-blooded or not. Continue reading “The power struggle within Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Saudi Arabian issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The 32-year old Prince Muhammad bin Salman, who  is the heir to Saudi Arabia’s throne, wants at first “to eradicate the roots of Islamic extremism” as soon as possible. This means that from now on the confrontation between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia will be downplayed from infra-Islamic clash of civilization to a normal and natural standard of regional warfare.

 The openings made by Muhammad bin Salman – designated as Crown Prince by his father after many years – such as allowing women to drive are very clear signs that the al-Saud Kingdom does no longer want to be a fundamentalist island in the Middle East nor a silent partner of the United States or of other countries.

 This implies the end of Sunni-Shiite clash of civilizations and the fact that Saudi Arabia agrees to set aside its traditional role as leader of an all-out struggle with the “Ali Sect” led by Iran.

 Let us not be misled by the first reactions to the Saudi official statements. Continue reading “The Saudi Arabian issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

How to interpret the crisis between Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s allies – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The crisis between Qatar and much of the new “Sunni” NATO – as some US media already call it today – consists in a formal series of 13 requests  that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, the Emirates, Bahrain, and even Mauritius, have made – as an ultimatum – to Qatar: 1) to break off any diplomatic and economic relations with Iran; 2) to immediately close the Turkish military base near Doha and, anyway, put an end to military cooperation between Qatar and Turkey; 3) to immediately close Al Jazeera, an old TV created on the ruins of the BBC broadcasting in Arabic and later de facto monopolized by the Muslim Brotherhood; 4) to make the members of the Qatari Royal House no longer fund networks such as Arabi21, RASSD, Araby al-Jadid and Middle East Eye. “Araby al Jadeed” is a brand-new all-news network created in March 2014 and organized by Azmi Bashara, a former member of the Israeli Parliament, broadcasting from London, Beirut and Doha, with 150 employees, while the above stated Middle East Eye is currently led by David Hearst, formerly foreign editor-in-chief of the London Guardian. Continue reading “How to interpret the crisis between Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s allies – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Israel and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In Syria, on February 24 last, Iraq carried out its first bombing against Isis in the region of Abu Kemal, but the tactical and intelligence support to the Iraqi forces was been given by Russia and Iran, not by the United States which, however, also tacitly allowed the operations.

 This also means that Putin has lost his patience and fears the new fragmentation of power and factionalism in the United States, considering Donald Trump’s Presidency and the intelligence agencies now deployed against the new President. Hence Putin goes on with his operations in Syria with the support of Iran and not with the US support, as had previously been planned by the Russian intelligence services.

 It is also assumed that the United States does not accept the primary role of the Turkish forces in the conquest of Raqqa, the capital of the so-called “Caliphate”. However, after the conquest of the town of Al Bab in Northern Syria, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, announced that the Turkish armed forces would continue actions towards Raqqa with the support of France, Great Britain, and Germany – not to mention the United States. Continue reading “Israel and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The likely war between Iran and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

With a view to better understanding what might happen in the future between the Shi’ite Republic of Iran and the   Wahhabi and Sunni stronghold represented by Saudi Arabia, we need to examine a wide range of geoeconomic, political, ideological, strategic and military data and conditions.

Both geopolitical players, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia, may appear irrational to Western observers and decision-makers, but they are used to analyze their strategic equation down to the smallest detail.

Firstly, let us analyze the issue of oil prices and their geopolitical significance.

In principle, the oil price per barrel at around or below 30 US dollars should increase slowly, although Saudi Arabia has oriented and directed the rest of OPEC Sunni countries towards temporary overproduction, so as to further lower prices and damage Iran. And damage Russia, as well – a small simultaneous favor to the American friends which, however, is a very ambiguous token of friendship: at a price below 30 US dollars/barrel, the US shale oil is totally uneconomical and many US shale oil companies (reportedly 40%) are already on the verge of bankruptcy. Continue reading “The likely war between Iran and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The recent death sentences in Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

On January 3, 2016 Saudi Arabia sentenced to death, among others, Nimr al Nimr, aged 56, the Shi’ite Imam on its territory, and the Head of Al Qaeda, Faris Al Zahrani.

The condemnation of Nimr al Nimr had been confirmed by the Supreme Court last October for seeking “foreign meddling” in Saudi Arabia, “disobeying” its rulers and  “taking up arms against the security forces”.

In 2011 Nimr, the spiritual leader of the two million Shi’ites living in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern province – very rich in oil – had asked for  the secession of its province from the  Wahhabi Kingdom of the Al Saud family and its merger with Bahrain when, at that time, the Emirate was witnessing the insurgency of the Shi’ite majority against the Al Khalifa’ Sunni  family, who rules it with a small minority of officials linked to Saudi Arabia.

Most of the 47 convicts executed were members of the core group of Al Qaeda operating in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and were held accountable for acts of terrorism in Saudi Arabia from 2003 to 2006.

Among others, an Egyptian citizen and a citizen from  Chad were executed.

Nimr Al Nimr’s brother  launched an appeal for calm to the Shi’ites of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in the Eastern provinces and in the other Shi’ite countries of the region.
Before being executed, Nimr had studied in Qom and was the leader of the many Shi’ite militants living in the city of Qatif, but he never condemned the Saudi royal family. Continue reading “The recent death sentences in Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Saudi Arabia’s structural crisis – Giancarlo Elia Valori

It was the father of “Kim” Philby – he, too, a man of Her Majesty’s intelligence services – to support the American Standard Oil in Saudi Arabia, instead of the British and Dutch Royal Dutch Shell.

Whoever betrays once, always betrays, and his son “Kim” betrayed England so as to follow a Communist myth, at first as an infiltrator in the British intelligence services, and later as a refugee in the USSR – only to participate in the meeting held in the Andropov Institute where both  perestroika and glasnost were decided.

However, what is the situation of the economies of the Arab and Sunni oil producing countries, which have always supported and are currently weakening the Vienna agency to better fight against Iran, the Russian-Asian region and even the United States, which are now  the first producer, before the Saudis? Continue reading “Saudi Arabia’s structural crisis – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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