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The transformation of the North Korean military and political system – Giancarlo Elia Valori

How is North Korea’s political system currently changing, pending the Great Transformation with the USA and South Korea, wanted and carefully directed by Kim Jong-un?

 In the future the Great Leader wants to have a new ruling class suitable for the economic and strategic changes which will affect North Korea in the coming years.

 Far-reaching military and economic changes, with the support of Iran, the Russian Federation, China and other countries.

 According to Kim Jong-un, without prejudice to the regime’s structure, everything else must change.

 In the framework of this change, the State and the Party must be turned into quick and agile tools in the hands of the Leader and of his partly-renewed inner circle.

 Kim Jong-un’s primary goal is to control the initial phase of North Korea’s economic transformation, as well as to keep the grip on the Armed Forces and the Party, and to finally create a new ruling class for managing denuclearization and the economic transformation. Continue reading “The transformation of the North Korean military and political system – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The issue of peace in North Korea and Asia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Much has already been decided in the best way for peace on the Korean peninsula and, indirectly, in the South Pacific region and even for the US power projection onto Asia.

 In fact, after almost five years since the proclamation of his byungjin policy in March 2013, Kim Jong Un has announced “a new strategic policy line”.

 It is worth recalling that, in Kim Jong Un’s thought, byungjin is the parallel development of the economy and military and strategic research and supremacy.

 I make no secret of the fact that – as stated by the North Korea’s leadership in a letter sent to me – much has been done by me, who has tried to analyze the issue of North Korean nuclear and missile systems with the help of my long-standing friendship for North Korea and of the trust I have gained there over many years – trust that also many US friends have ensured to me. Continue reading “The issue of peace in North Korea and Asia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Demilitarization between the two Koreas – Giancarlo Elia Valori

At domestic level, Kim Jong-Un is pursuing two original and interesting policy lines within North Korea: the rise of a new generation to power and the evident and stable economic expansion.

 Under Kim Jong-Un’s leadership, the private segment of the North Korean economy has undergone great development and the new class of young people rising to power – who epitomize the general rejuvenation of the North Korean society – is also an unknown factor for the forthcoming talks between the two Koreas and the talks between the United States and North Korea.

 Certainly Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un rules without problems, but he shall consider the new climate prevailing within his Party.

 At military level, according to the data provided by the US intelligence services, North Korea has an arsenal of 36 nuclear warheads.

 Only in 2017 did North Korea fire 23 missiles.

 During the bilateral talks with South Korea, however, Kim Jong-Un also said he wanted to impose a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear missile launches between March and April 2018. Continue reading “Demilitarization between the two Koreas – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

North Korea’s future geopolitics – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the phase immediately after the end of the 23rd Winter Olympics in PyeongChang – a site located in South Korea – North Korea’s new global strategy is much more innovative than we can imagine.

 In fact only the naivest analysts, who are almost always Westerners, were surprised at Kim Jong-Un’s “opening”  for the Winter Games organized in South Korea, which is allied with the United States.

 Indeed, the framework of North Korea’s new international relations is rapidly changing, after the presence of Kim Jong-Un’s sister, namely Kim Yo-Jong, at the opening ceremony of the Winter Games and the large North Korean delegation including as many as 550 athletes, cheerleaders, etc.

 North Korea has a significant presence in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Eritrea – and this will increase in the future – in addition to the well-known good relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan.

 In the future, North Korea will operate in Latin America and Southeast Asia, independently of China but without hampering China’s interests or, in the near future, Russia’s. Continue reading “North Korea’s future geopolitics – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Tension between North Korea and the United States – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The tension between the United States and North Korea is still mounting.

In fact, in mid-May, some North Korean executives accused the US intelligence services of having made an attempt on Kim Jong-un’s life.

Allegedly the operation started with CIA selecting a North Korean citizen, who had already had contacts with the South Korean intelligence services, and who had to use highly poisonous chemical substances against the North Korean leader.

In addition, the attacker was supposed to have had links with a Chinese company, namely Qingdao Nazca Trade Co.

It is also likely that the attempted assassination of the North Korean leader may be the result of an internal struggle for power in the country, but obviously – at a time of very high international tension – the North Korean propaganda lays emphasis only on the United States.

However, the new South Korean President Moon Jae-In – a human rights lawyer – has repeatedly stressed that he plans to work with President Donald Trump. Nevertheless he has also stressed that he is anyway open to negotiations with North Korea without any conditions, which is certainly not what the United States wants from him. Continue reading “Tension between North Korea and the United States – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The new President of South Korea – by Giancarlo Elia Valori

Moon Jae-In is the new President of South Korea, elected with 41.4% of votes.

 The leader of the Democratic Party, who is the current president, had already been considered favoured in opinion polls, especially compared to Hong Yoon-Pyo, the leader of the Liberty Korea Party who, however, got 23.3% of votes.

 The election of the leader of the Democratic Party, namely the  Minjoo Party, puts an end to the multi-annual centre-right political hegemony represented by the old Saenuri Party, which last February, following the impeachment and dismissal of former President Geun-Hye Park, split off and changed its name to Liberty Korea Party.

 The turnout rate was particularly high, with 77.2% of people who cast their vote.

 However, who is the 66-year-old lawyer who has a long history as human right lawyer and civil rights defender? Continue reading “The new President of South Korea – by Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The two Koreas. Some considerations on the relationship between North and South Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori

If the two Koreas reunified, as planned in 2000 with the joint declaration of June 15, we would have an unreasonable merging of two radically different political principles.

 South Korea has chosen to be a periphery of the American empire, which uses the US economy on the basis of its internal cycles and mature technologies that it exports by taking advantage of the low cost of manpower and of some raw materials.

 North Korea played the Cold War card, supported only partially by China and Russia, which used North Korea as a block for the West and paid for said North Korea’s commitment with political stability and some economic aid.

 The Cold War, however, is really over and this holds true both for North and for South Korea.

 We need to think of new worlds and new “super-concept rules”, just to quote Wittgenstein.

 Traditionally, unification is conceived as a Confederation, as supported by South Korea, or as a  Federation with wide autonomy for both areas, as  always supported by North Korea. Continue reading “The two Koreas. Some considerations on the relationship between North and South Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

How to solve the North Korean military and strategic issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Why does North Korea want to currently reach such a nuclear threshold as to threaten Japan, South Korea, the Southern Asian seas and, obviously, the US bases in the Pacific, as well as the North American mainland?

 Because it fears to be invaded from the South or from the sea, with an integrated action on its coast by South Korea and the United States, with the Japanese support off the coast.

 The North Korean Republic fears to be invaded because it is close to countries which are also obliged to support and influence it, not through the Marxist-Leninist ideology but with geography, namely China and Russia.

 Hence it fears that the price of support will become too high for the country to be able to pay it without a “socialist” regime change, such as that of Deng Xiaoping’s China, or with Russia’s statist nationalism.

 These countries are such as to influence North Korea by helping the Juche (self-reliance) regime at increasingly higher, and ultimately unsustainable, strategic costs for the country. Continue reading “How to solve the North Korean military and strategic issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The launch of the North-Korean ballistic missile – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 A missile was launched from a submarine by the North Korean Navy a few hours ago, targeting Japan.

 The launch of the ballistic missile took place on Wednesday, August 24, just before 6.00 a.m. (local time).

 According to South Korean sources, the missile was launched from the Northern coast of the country and reached Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), after flying over 300 nautical miles.

  On the contrary, according to some US sources, the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is supposed to be a KN-11.

  The KN-11, Polaris-1 or Nodong-1 – but said missile has also other names – is a weapon system still being studied in Pyongyang, derived from the Soviet R-27 Zyb and from other recent Russian projects called R-29 and R-29RM. Continue reading “The launch of the North-Korean ballistic missile – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The current North-Korean issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Pending the periodical transformation of the North American political system, the Korean issue is surfacing again.

It is a complex issue which is crucial to the strategic balance in Southern Asia.

Moreover, it is precisely in the Korean region that the US (and also the European) balances with China and the Russian Federation are determined.

Since February 2016, Russia has always had excellent relations with the North Korean regime, but exactly in that phase the United States called for sanctions against North Korea within the UN Security Council. These sanctions have been primarily designed to damage the economic and strategic interests Russia has in the region. Continue reading “The current North-Korean issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Legislative elections in South Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the elections held on April 13, 2016  all the 300 seats of the Seoul National Assembly were renewed.

253 members of Parliament were elected with the typical British first-past-the-post system, the traditional  mechanism  by which the candidate winning 50% of votes + 1 or, alternatively, the candidate obtaining the majority of votes in a particular constituency, regardless of the percentage of his/her valid votes, is elected.

47 representatives were elected from proportional party lists, in accordance with Constitutional provisions.

Against all odds, the elections were clearly won by the  Minjoo Party of Korea.

The Minjoo Party, formally the New Politics Alliance for Democracy, is a political grouping of liberal-democratic culture, at least according to Western political science criteria. Continue reading “Legislative elections in South Korea – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Summit on nuclear weapons and the North Korean issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Currently the strategic and global nuclear balance develops on the basis of three factors which are closely interwoven.

The first one is related to Europe, which is marginalized after the end of the Cold War and will remain so for the years to come.

Today the European Union, both the Euro area and the EU-28, has not an overall strategy for the future. It has no credible nuclear weapons outside NATO, not even for the French-British duo, which stems from well-different considerations and interests.

Europe is destined to bad integration, because it lost the particular “third world war” called globalization, with the Middle East and the Maghreb region which will be for the EU the equivalent of what Southern Europe’s economies and societies were at the beginning of the unification process of the Eurasian peninsula, which was functional only to put pressure on the USSR and its military pact.

Indeed, President Barack Obama’s new geopolitics, which will certainly be maintained and followed by his successor to the US presidency, is to encircle the Russian Federation – hence the new strategic alliance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – and finally China. Continue reading “The Summit on nuclear weapons and the North Korean issue – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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