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China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In relazione, molto stretta, con la Belt and Road Initiative, il presidente Xi Jinping, nel maggio 2017, ha proposto la apertura annuale di una fiera commerciale che riguarda le importazioni in Cina.

 Segno che la “Iniziativa” è fortemente benefica per le economie asiatiche e europee che vi partecipano; ma segno anche che la Cina mantiene il suo tradizionale criterio di sviluppo, quello dell’equilibrio tra economia di mercato e controllo dello stato e, soprattutto, Pechino riafferma con la BRI e la Fiera il criterio della progressiva trasformazione in una economia aperta di tutto il sistema produttivo cinese.

 La Cina ha generato la sua crescita, colossale, con una grande, oggi impensabile in Occidente, quantità di investimenti pubblici.

 Organizzati soprattutto attraverso società pubbliche, talvolta meno profittevoli di quelle private ma, comunque, investimenti diretti verso obiettivi generali e nazionali.

 Il che ha prodotto un deficit pubblico elevato, anche per gli standard di sicurezza cinesi.  Allora, come si fa a equilibrare il deficit? Con le importazioni, come accade da sempre.

 Inoltre, la banca di emissione di Pechino ha sempre strettamente controllato la parità tra yuan e dollaro statunitense. Continue reading “China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The economic and intelligence tension between the United States and China is currently at its peak since the end of the Cold War. During that phase, however, China had also taken actions to oppose the Soviet Union, with the opening to the United States and the “ping-pong diplomacy” in the early 1970s, as well as its tacit support to Kissinger’s resolution of all tensions between the United States and the Southeast Asian countries.

 At the time China wanted to help the United States to regionalize – in Asia – its historic “Northern enemy,” namely Russia.

 In his “Three Worlds Theory”, Mao Zedong placed it together with the United States in the “First World”, as both imperialist powers, while he regarded China as the current and future leader of the whole Third World fighting against the “metropolises” of the First World.

  Said project has not changed, it has only changed its language and its procedures.

 Now that the bilateral tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China is at its highest, the rationale for this new Sino-American scenario is simple. China wants to achieve global geopolitical hegemony, while the United States led by President Donald J. Trump wants to rebuild its new economic and purely financial hegemony, and hence resort to protectionist practices. Continue reading “The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Russian, Chinese and Mongolian exercises known as Vostok 2018 have been particularly important both from a military and tactical viewpoint and due to their geopolitical significance.

 Vostok 2018 (a Russian term generally translated as “East”) is an operation reaffirming the new strategic unity between Russia and China. Hence it conveys a very clear message to the West that it would be good for the Atlantic Alliance not to disregard or neglect.

 The message is the following: if NATO wants to attack them or, in any case, enter the areas of Russian-Chinese interest in the Heartland, the response of the Sino-Slavic axis will be very harsh, to the point of raising the threshold of a possible Western attack to an intolerable level. Hence the unavoidable response from the “East” will be unbearable at technical, financial and political levels for the attacker alone.

 With this really impressive operation – although the number of the forces on the field has not yet be fully defined ex post – Russia certainly wants to demonstrate that the United States cannot attack without expecting severe responses from the Russian Federation, probably capable of blocking the US itself – considering that, in this case, there would be an immediate reunification with the Chinese forces, with the Mongolian Armed Forces and probably also with other forces of the Central Asian region, which is certainly a fact not to be disregarded. Continue reading “The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori

A geoeconomic and strategic clash between China and France is currently emerging across Africa, with France supporting the United States in a new bilateral relationship, and China changing its economic penetration into the Dark Continent – in a new relationship with the Russian Federation.

 Let us look at the main data and statistics: this year the African Development Bank has forecast a 1.9% growth in Southern Africa; a 2.2% growth in Central Africa and even 3.4% in Eastern and Northern Africa.

 However, the trend is towards a slowdown in economic growth across the world – a slowdown that will be ushered in by the reaching and exceeding of the 100 US dollar threshold of the oil barrel price.

 In fact, if we analyse the data and statistical series, the recent great economic and financial crises have been triggered by a significant increase in the oil price – that the West is facing with increasing difficulty. Continue reading “France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The new connectivity to Eurasia opens the Korean peninsula to the world

Besides modernizing the Korean peninsula’s whole network, the railway cooperation between the two Koreas, ratified on June 26 last, will permit the connection to the Trans-Siberian Railway, which can be defined as the starting point of what is called “The Silk Road of the XXI Century” – in more precise terms the construction of a new “Silk Railway” as a bridge connecting two worlds, with a clear reference to the ancient Silk Road that united China with the territories of the Roman Empire. Instead, this rail network will connect South Korea to North Korea and – through the Trans-Siberian Railway – to Eurasia, so as to allow the fast movement of people, goods and resources.

This agreement seems to have been the real goal of the joint declaration between the two Koreas on April 27 last – the day of the historic Panmunjom Summit – to open up to the world.

It is a grand program that could represent the mainstay of a new economic roadmap for a sound and balanced development of the whole peninsula, which is also very rich in mineral resources. Continue reading “The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The last Summit of the Atlantic Alliance saw, at least initially, a clear divergence between the United States and NATO’s European allies.

 For President Trump, who is above all a businessman, budgets and investments count, rather than strategic doctrines, about which there was very little talk.

  The US President, who arrived at the Summit with premeditated and carefully-considered delay, polemicized especially with Germany, saying that its low spending for defence makes it “prisoner” of Russia.

  President Trump cannot get over and deal with the NORD STREAM pipeline, headed by Mathias Warnig, former director of STASI in Dresden where, at the time, Vladimir Putin worked for the KGB, the intelligence service that was the “master” of STASI.

 He wants Europeans to buy the North American shale gas and oil – but it is a very difficult goal to reach.

 Europe is disputed by two energy oligopolists. Continue reading “President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Chinese yuan has already plummeted to the historic lows of the last seven months as against the dollar and nothing prevents us from thinking that the Chinese government is organizing a real devaluation of the yuan-renmimbi.

 In fact, on June 27 last, the Chinese central bank set the parity as against the dollar at 6.596, by also cutting additional 391 points compared to the levels of the previous day.

 A move that could largely expand the already significant size of China’s foreign trade, as well as avoid further tension with the USA on trade tariffs, and finally increase and differentiate Chinese exports.

 This does not necessarily mean, however, that China really wants to significantly and clearly devalue the yuan. We rather fear that this threat is a sword of Damocles to be placed right on President Trump’s head.

 The problem is, above all, of a geopolitical rather than of a financial nature.

 As early as the 1990s, the US ruling classes have ridden  their project of globalization, which has inevitably been matched by universal financialization. Continue reading “Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The petroyuan – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Many oil futures denominated in yuan were launched on the Shanghai market at the end of March 2018 and quickly traded for 62,500 contracts – hence for a notional value of 27 billion yuan, equivalent to 4 billion US dollars.

The financial process of the new petroyuan, however, had already begun as early as 2016.

 Hence there was obviously the danger of an internal financial bubble in China, but linked to the crude oil price –  yet the Chinese government had decided that the fluctuation allowed for those contracts had to be only 5%, with a maximum 10% fluctuation only for the first day of trading.

 Furthermore considering the average level of oil transactions in China, we can see that oil and gas imports could back financial operations totalling over 200 billion yuan.

  According to industry analysts, the level of Chinese oil  imports is expected to increase by approximately 2.1 million barrels per day from 2017 until 2023, which implies that the Chinese market will change the future level of oil barrel prices – be they denominated in dollars or in another currency.
Continue reading “The petroyuan – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The current financial regulation in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The power of a newly established Chinese public organization, namely the Financial Stability and Development Committee, is growing. Said organization was created precisely on November 8, 2017.

 It is an important organization under the State Council’s direct control. Indeed, it is an office of the Council itself which will deal mainly with China’s financial stability and with all matters concerning economic development and monetary and capital stability.

 More specifically, the Committee will be tasked with deliberating major national programs for regulating the financial system, for organizing monetary policy with the Central Bank and for defining tax policies and the related fiscal and industrial actions.

 This Committee will also be responsible for analysing  international and domestic financial situations, identifying the greatest global financial systemic risks, as well as studying the related conditions and finally defining the ways for reaching  financial stability. Continue reading “The current financial regulation in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The de-dollarization in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The US dollar is so important in today’s economy for three main reasons: the huge amount of petrodollars; the use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the decision taken by US President Nixon in 1971 to end the dollar convertibility into gold.

The US currency is still a large part of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the IMF’s “paper money”.

A share ranging between 41% and 46% depending on the periods.

Petrodollars emerged when Henry Kissinger dealt with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, after “Black September” in Jordan.

The agreement was simple. Saudi Arabia had to accept only dollars as payments for the oil it sold, but was forced to invest that huge amount of US currency only in the US financial channels while, in return, the United States placed Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC neighbouring countries under its own military protection. Continue reading “The de-dollarization in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

China’s military doctrine with President Xi Jinping – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Which is President Xi Jinping’s military doctrine and his  “warfare rationale”?

 With a view to well understanding the evolution of Chinese warfare studies to date, however, we need to study the tradition of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the vision that the Communist Party of China (CPC) had in the history of warfare doctrine.

 Firstly, for China, the different terminologies used within NATO and, more generally, in Western military doctrines such as “global strategy”, “national security strategy” or “national defense strategy” are not separate concepts or ways of thinking, but are all subsumed in the Chinese general notion of “military strategy”.

 Again in Chinese terminology, in simpler terms, the strategy “guidelines” are the political-military policy lines developed by the CPC leadership.

 In these policy lines we can perceive the geopolitical threat that the CPC thinks to be closer and hence the likeliest type of future war that China must absolutely be ready to wage and fight. Continue reading “China’s military doctrine with President Xi Jinping – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Xi Jinping’s political and strategic line – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Based on the long and careful speech delivered by Chinese President Xi Jinping on New Year’s Eve, it is currently useful to identify his policy line and of the conceptual framework of his activity as statesman.

 From what we can currently read on the most widespread Western media, Xi Jinping’s policy line comes down to a simple and mechanistic “concentration of power” in the President’s hands or, worse, to the discovery of a “new Chinese authoritarianism”, characterized by the usual and banal request for some “opening” by the Chinese Party and State structures.

 The banality of good, we could say, by ironically paraphrasing the title of a very famous book by Hannah Arendt, namely The Banality of Evil.

 It is really strange that the Western theory of political representation can never go beyond a naive, rough and phenomenological pluralism or the childish fear of power in the hands of a Leader.

 Yet another example of a conceptual and philosophical crisis of the modern State in the West foreshadowing more severe and material destabilization. Continue reading “Xi Jinping’s political and strategic line – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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