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France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori

A geoeconomic and strategic clash between China and France is currently emerging across Africa, with France supporting the United States in a new bilateral relationship, and China changing its economic penetration into the Dark Continent – in a new relationship with the Russian Federation.

 Let us look at the main data and statistics: this year the African Development Bank has forecast a 1.9% growth in Southern Africa; a 2.2% growth in Central Africa and even 3.4% in Eastern and Northern Africa.

 However, the trend is towards a slowdown in economic growth across the world – a slowdown that will be ushered in by the reaching and exceeding of the 100 US dollar threshold of the oil barrel price.

 In fact, if we analyse the data and statistical series, the recent great economic and financial crises have been triggered by a significant increase in the oil price – that the West is facing with increasing difficulty. Continue reading “France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The talks held in September 2018 between Kim Jong-Un and the South Korean President – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In less than one year three meetings have been held between the North Korean Leader and the South Korean President, Moon Jae-In.

  In the initial meeting the two leaders had decided to put an end to the state of war between their two countries. They had also reaffirmed the goal of denuclearization of the entire peninsula, with the consequent destruction of the nuclear potential of South Korea and of the United States, in particular. They also decided to create an inter-Korean Liason Office between the two sides of the Demilitarized Zone and to bring together the families dispersed between the two Koreas. Finally, the idea was to create new communication infrastructure – railway lines, in particular – a project by which Russia has always set great store.

 Indeed, Russia is betting many of its cards on a reunification between the two Koreas, capable of enabling it to keep its excellent relations with South Korea – which are essential for the economy – and to also support North Korea, which is Russia’s unavoidable strategic goal. Continue reading “The talks held in September 2018 between Kim Jong-Un and the South Korean President – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and denuclearization talks – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The issue of denuclearization of the whole Korean peninsula is currently at the core of the debate between North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China and the Russian Federation.

This has been seen – symbolically, but very clearly – in the very recent military parade in Pyongyang for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. In fact, there was not the traditional and strong emphasis on the North Korean nuclear and missile system, but rather a balanced representation of the Armed Forces and the various social components, to which the North Korean Socialist regime entrusts its hegemony in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which is a true hegemony, not a constraint.

Whoever wants to destabilize North Korea with the usual talk about liberalism would be in serious trouble.

Let us also consider the symbolism of the representation of cadres and relevant figures of the regime around Kim Jong-Un on the stage.

There was a large number of representatives who had participated in many events, while the very few newcomers were mingled with Kim Jong-Un’s usual aides and collaborators. Continue reading “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and denuclearization talks – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani held in Tehran on September 7, 2018 – Giancarlo Elia Valori

After the meeting of last April, Iranian President Rouhani, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met again in Teheran (and in Tabriz) on September 6-7, within the now usual setting of the Astana talks.

 The specific aim of these last negotiations was to normalize the Syrian situation in the long term, as well as to further promote the eradication of international terrorism and the stabilization of the infra-Syrian political process and finally to create the necessary conditions for a return of Syrian displaced people and refugees abroad.

 There are now innumerable peace meetings for war in Syria, which has been going on for about seven years.

In this case everything stems from the foreseeable failure of the “six-point peace plan for Syria” proposed by Kofi Annan in 2012, with the authorization of the Arab League and the United Nations.

  The first point of the peace plan proposed by Annan envisaged the commitment “to work for an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people” – and here I confine myself to quoting the text, whatever it may mean. Continue reading “The meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani held in Tehran on September 7, 2018 – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The new connectivity to Eurasia opens the Korean peninsula to the world

Besides modernizing the Korean peninsula’s whole network, the railway cooperation between the two Koreas, ratified on June 26 last, will permit the connection to the Trans-Siberian Railway, which can be defined as the starting point of what is called “The Silk Road of the XXI Century” – in more precise terms the construction of a new “Silk Railway” as a bridge connecting two worlds, with a clear reference to the ancient Silk Road that united China with the territories of the Roman Empire. Instead, this rail network will connect South Korea to North Korea and – through the Trans-Siberian Railway – to Eurasia, so as to allow the fast movement of people, goods and resources.

This agreement seems to have been the real goal of the joint declaration between the two Koreas on April 27 last – the day of the historic Panmunjom Summit – to open up to the world.

It is a grand program that could represent the mainstay of a new economic roadmap for a sound and balanced development of the whole peninsula, which is also very rich in mineral resources. Continue reading “The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The meeting between Prime Minister Conte and President Trump – Giancarlo Elia Valori

At least apparently, the meeting between US President Trump and Italy’s Prime Minister Conte – already widely planned and publicized – went well.

 With some common and evident pride, they mutually defined each other as the initiators of what, nowadays, is usually called “populism”, consisting in the fight against traditional elites in favour of the “people” that, however, actually appears rather as a fight between two different components of the global elite: the old one that still focuses on globalization and the other that instead gathers around the evident crisis of globalism and wants to build a new multipolar world. Ultimately the opening to the world market has proved to be less effective than expected: the cost for destroying “domestic” jobs has turned out to be greater than the gains resulting from the globalized market.

 President Trump, who has clear in mind what is still happening on the US-Mexican border, said that the Italian government’s work on the migrant issue “is formidable”.

 Italy’s government work that, however, would be “formidable” both for illegal migrants and for the very few legal ones. Continue reading “The meeting between Prime Minister Conte and President Trump – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The last Summit of the Atlantic Alliance saw, at least initially, a clear divergence between the United States and NATO’s European allies.

 For President Trump, who is above all a businessman, budgets and investments count, rather than strategic doctrines, about which there was very little talk.

  The US President, who arrived at the Summit with premeditated and carefully-considered delay, polemicized especially with Germany, saying that its low spending for defence makes it “prisoner” of Russia.

  President Trump cannot get over and deal with the NORD STREAM pipeline, headed by Mathias Warnig, former director of STASI in Dresden where, at the time, Vladimir Putin worked for the KGB, the intelligence service that was the “master” of STASI.

 He wants Europeans to buy the North American shale gas and oil – but it is a very difficult goal to reach.

 Europe is disputed by two energy oligopolists. Continue reading “President Trump and NATO. President Trump and the trade war with China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The transformation of the North Korean military and political system – Giancarlo Elia Valori

How is North Korea’s political system currently changing, pending the Great Transformation with the USA and South Korea, wanted and carefully directed by Kim Jong-un?

 In the future the Great Leader wants to have a new ruling class suitable for the economic and strategic changes which will affect North Korea in the coming years.

 Far-reaching military and economic changes, with the support of Iran, the Russian Federation, China and other countries.

 According to Kim Jong-un, without prejudice to the regime’s structure, everything else must change.

 In the framework of this change, the State and the Party must be turned into quick and agile tools in the hands of the Leader and of his partly-renewed inner circle.

 Kim Jong-un’s primary goal is to control the initial phase of North Korea’s economic transformation, as well as to keep the grip on the Armed Forces and the Party, and to finally create a new ruling class for managing denuclearization and the economic transformation. Continue reading “The transformation of the North Korean military and political system – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Chinese yuan has already plummeted to the historic lows of the last seven months as against the dollar and nothing prevents us from thinking that the Chinese government is organizing a real devaluation of the yuan-renmimbi.

 In fact, on June 27 last, the Chinese central bank set the parity as against the dollar at 6.596, by also cutting additional 391 points compared to the levels of the previous day.

 A move that could largely expand the already significant size of China’s foreign trade, as well as avoid further tension with the USA on trade tariffs, and finally increase and differentiate Chinese exports.

 This does not necessarily mean, however, that China really wants to significantly and clearly devalue the yuan. We rather fear that this threat is a sword of Damocles to be placed right on President Trump’s head.

 The problem is, above all, of a geopolitical rather than of a financial nature.

 As early as the 1990s, the US ruling classes have ridden  their project of globalization, which has inevitably been matched by universal financialization. Continue reading “Trade wars, currency wars and geopolitical clashes – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Big Data and the new techniques of government political and strategic decision-making – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Some considerations on Big Data.

  As is now well-known, it is a technology which mainly  deals with collecting, processing and selecting a huge quantity of different data.

  As in some Hegel’s works, here Quantity immediately becomes Quality. The mass of data and the link between them change – hence also its meaning and use change.

  A technology or, rather, a series of technologies joined together, which processes many terabytes (2 at the power of 40 bytes, equivalent to 1,048,576 megabytes) at the same time. A huge amount and, above all, simultaneously. Another type of quantity that is immediately turned into quality.

  After the creation of the International Telecommunication Union in Geneva in 2017, still led by the Chinese Houlin Zhao, we have some additional facts to evaluate the extraordinary relevance of the Big Data Science.

  Meanwhile, just the everyday processing-collection of huge amounts of news allows – also by comparison only – the discovery of many new data and often even of industrial or state secrets. Continue reading “Big Data and the new techniques of government political and strategic decision-making – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

North Korea, the United States and the Singapore Summit Agreement – Giancarlo Elia Valori

There are many essential points of the US-North Korean talks which have been treated, albeit briefly, in the Singapore Summit between Kim Jong-Un and US President Donald J. Trump.

 It was certainly not a mere photo-opportunity but, inevitably, it was not an already fully-fledged agreement between the two parties.

 With specific reference to denuclearization, nothing new under the sun, but something very important and new from the political viewpoint, also compared to the opposing rhetoric of the USA and North Korea. Symbols matter in foreign policy and, as far as we know, Trump and Kim Jong-Un liked each other – rational, brutal and frank as they both are.

 Nevertheless, North Korea’s decision-makers have long considered their realistic plans for their country’s military nuclear exit.

 In fact, five years ago Kim Jong-Un decided to implement his byungjin policy line, i.e. the parallel development of North Korea’s nuclear military system and of the civilian economy since he had above all verified that, at the time, it was the only way to make the USA sit at the negotiating table. Continue reading “North Korea, the United States and the Singapore Summit Agreement – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Jordan’s future stability – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Thanks to the Russian intervention the long sequence of the so-called “Arab springs” has long been interrupted in Syria, but it keeps on expanding elsewhere, considering the many players in the various national “civil societies” that still act within this strategic framework of the Arab springs, which was put in place mainly by the USA and its allies in the Sunni world.

 This is undoubtedly the case of the revolt which took place in Jordan early June.

 On June 4 last, after the revolt in various cities of the Kingdom and, above all, in Amman, King Abdallah accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Hani al-Mulki.

 Hani Fawzi Mulki, former director of Aqaba’s Special Economic Zone, studied in Egypt and in the USA.

 It is also worth noting that Mulki led the team that ratified the 1994 Peace Treaty between Jordan and Israel. Later,  after holding many important posts, he was appointed Prime Minister on May 29, 2016. Continue reading “Jordan’s future stability – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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