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The Conference on Libya hosted in Palermo, Sicily – Giancarlo Elia Valori

It currently seems that the Conference on Libya scheduled in Palermo, Sicily, will finally be a predictable success for the Italian government.

 General Haftar, the powerful man of Cyrenaica (and currently also of Sirte) arrived in Rome on October 28 last for an informal visit which, however, was extremely useful for the Palermo Conference and for Italy’s future strategy in Libya.

 The Head of the old “Operation Dignity” will certainly be also in Palermo, while Russia will probably be represented by Medvedev or by the Deputy Foreign Minister, Bogdanov. Or even by Dimitri Peskov. Nevertheless, whoever of them will participate in the Conference will have President Putin’s personal instructions to follow.  Moreover, President Putin will follow the Conference debate in Sicily with extreme care.

 Russia’s goal is to stabilize its presence in Libya, regardless of the political results reached by the Palermo Conference, and hence to start a strategic relationship also with Fayez al-Sarraj and Misrata’s Seventh Brigade, as well as with the major tribes of the Tripoli area. This can be achieved above all with the Italian support.

 Nothing is more distant from the Russian interest than an exclusive bilateral relationship with General Haftar, of whom Russia has even minted the new coins with  Colonel Gaddafi’s profile. Continue reading “The Conference on Libya hosted in Palermo, Sicily – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In relazione, molto stretta, con la Belt and Road Initiative, il presidente Xi Jinping, nel maggio 2017, ha proposto la apertura annuale di una fiera commerciale che riguarda le importazioni in Cina.

 Segno che la “Iniziativa” è fortemente benefica per le economie asiatiche e europee che vi partecipano; ma segno anche che la Cina mantiene il suo tradizionale criterio di sviluppo, quello dell’equilibrio tra economia di mercato e controllo dello stato e, soprattutto, Pechino riafferma con la BRI e la Fiera il criterio della progressiva trasformazione in una economia aperta di tutto il sistema produttivo cinese.

 La Cina ha generato la sua crescita, colossale, con una grande, oggi impensabile in Occidente, quantità di investimenti pubblici.

 Organizzati soprattutto attraverso società pubbliche, talvolta meno profittevoli di quelle private ma, comunque, investimenti diretti verso obiettivi generali e nazionali.

 Il che ha prodotto un deficit pubblico elevato, anche per gli standard di sicurezza cinesi.  Allora, come si fa a equilibrare il deficit? Con le importazioni, come accade da sempre.

 Inoltre, la banca di emissione di Pechino ha sempre strettamente controllato la parità tra yuan e dollaro statunitense. Continue reading “China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The clash between the United States and the Russian Federation on strategic nuclear weapons – Giancarlo Elia Valori

On October 20 last the US President, Donald J. Trump, stated that North America would withdraw from the INF Treaty on nuclear missile weapons, which means that Europe will be again the main base for the new intermediate and long-range weapon systems.

  Obviously the European ruling class, both at national and EU levels, has not yet said a single word about this new configuration of the threats and defences on our territory.

 President Trump referred specifically to the 1987 INF Treaty or, more precisely, to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 – a treaty that, in particular, banned the ground-launched nuclear missiles having a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometres.

The INF Treaty led to the complete elimination of almost 2,700 medium and short-range missiles, including 850 US ones and over 1,800 Soviet ones. As many may recall, it put an end to the tension between the United States and the Soviet Union just at the time when the latter deployed the new SS-20 missiles in Eastern Europe and, as a response, the former deployed its Cruise and Pershing missiles in the European NATO, in a phase characterized by a whirlwind of “pacifist” demonstrations. Continue reading “The clash between the United States and the Russian Federation on strategic nuclear weapons – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the period from 2009 to 2013 when Hillary Clinton was US Secretary of State, Saudi Arabia contributed with at least 10 million US dollars to the Clinton Foundation.

  Especially in the phases when, incidentally, Hillary Clinton permitted the sale of advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia

  As stated by Prince Regent Mohammed Bin Salman in an interview released in 2016 to the Jordanian news agency “Petra”, Saudi Arabia also paid over 20% of Hillary Clinton’s election campaign.

  However, it also subsidized the other candidates to the US Presidency, although to a lesser extent.

  In the political campaign for the US Presidency, no foreign investor puts all his/her eggs in the same basket – just to follow a typical US piece of advice.

 Moreover, like Russia and other countries, also the Saudi Kingdom has always backed both US presidential candidates financially. Continue reading “The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Restructuring Libya’s finance and economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Last August the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) moved its Tripoli’s offices to the now famous Tripoli Tower.

 The traditional financial institution of Gaddafi’s regime currently manages approximately 67 billion US dollars, most of which are frozen due to the UN sanctions.

 Said sanctions shall be gradually removed and replaced with a system of market controls, as the Libyan economy finds its way.

  Right now that, after intimidation and serious and often armed threats, LIA has moved to the safer Tripoli Tower.

 However, how was LIA established and, above all, what is it today? The Fund, which has some characteristics typical of the oil countries’ sovereign funds, was created in 2006, just as the EU and US economic and trade sanctions against Gaddafi’s regime were slowly being lifted.

  The idea underlying the operation was simple and rational, just like the one that had long pushed Norway to create the Government Pension Fund Global, i.e. using the oil profits to avoid the post-energy crisis in Libya and preserve the living standards of the good times. Continue reading “Restructuring Libya’s finance and economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The economic and intelligence tension between the United States and China is currently at its peak since the end of the Cold War. During that phase, however, China had also taken actions to oppose the Soviet Union, with the opening to the United States and the “ping-pong diplomacy” in the early 1970s, as well as its tacit support to Kissinger’s resolution of all tensions between the United States and the Southeast Asian countries.

 At the time China wanted to help the United States to regionalize – in Asia – its historic “Northern enemy,” namely Russia.

 In his “Three Worlds Theory”, Mao Zedong placed it together with the United States in the “First World”, as both imperialist powers, while he regarded China as the current and future leader of the whole Third World fighting against the “metropolises” of the First World.

  Said project has not changed, it has only changed its language and its procedures.

 Now that the bilateral tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China is at its highest, the rationale for this new Sino-American scenario is simple. China wants to achieve global geopolitical hegemony, while the United States led by President Donald J. Trump wants to rebuild its new economic and purely financial hegemony, and hence resort to protectionist practices. Continue reading “The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Russian, Chinese and Mongolian exercises known as Vostok 2018 have been particularly important both from a military and tactical viewpoint and due to their geopolitical significance.

 Vostok 2018 (a Russian term generally translated as “East”) is an operation reaffirming the new strategic unity between Russia and China. Hence it conveys a very clear message to the West that it would be good for the Atlantic Alliance not to disregard or neglect.

 The message is the following: if NATO wants to attack them or, in any case, enter the areas of Russian-Chinese interest in the Heartland, the response of the Sino-Slavic axis will be very harsh, to the point of raising the threshold of a possible Western attack to an intolerable level. Hence the unavoidable response from the “East” will be unbearable at technical, financial and political levels for the attacker alone.

 With this really impressive operation – although the number of the forces on the field has not yet be fully defined ex post – Russia certainly wants to demonstrate that the United States cannot attack without expecting severe responses from the Russian Federation, probably capable of blocking the US itself – considering that, in this case, there would be an immediate reunification with the Chinese forces, with the Mongolian Armed Forces and probably also with other forces of the Central Asian region, which is certainly a fact not to be disregarded. Continue reading “The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori

A geoeconomic and strategic clash between China and France is currently emerging across Africa, with France supporting the United States in a new bilateral relationship, and China changing its economic penetration into the Dark Continent – in a new relationship with the Russian Federation.

 Let us look at the main data and statistics: this year the African Development Bank has forecast a 1.9% growth in Southern Africa; a 2.2% growth in Central Africa and even 3.4% in Eastern and Northern Africa.

 However, the trend is towards a slowdown in economic growth across the world – a slowdown that will be ushered in by the reaching and exceeding of the 100 US dollar threshold of the oil barrel price.

 In fact, if we analyse the data and statistical series, the recent great economic and financial crises have been triggered by a significant increase in the oil price – that the West is facing with increasing difficulty. Continue reading “France and China in Africa – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The talks held in September 2018 between Kim Jong-Un and the South Korean President – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In less than one year three meetings have been held between the North Korean Leader and the South Korean President, Moon Jae-In.

  In the initial meeting the two leaders had decided to put an end to the state of war between their two countries. They had also reaffirmed the goal of denuclearization of the entire peninsula, with the consequent destruction of the nuclear potential of South Korea and of the United States, in particular. They also decided to create an inter-Korean Liason Office between the two sides of the Demilitarized Zone and to bring together the families dispersed between the two Koreas. Finally, the idea was to create new communication infrastructure – railway lines, in particular – a project by which Russia has always set great store.

 Indeed, Russia is betting many of its cards on a reunification between the two Koreas, capable of enabling it to keep its excellent relations with South Korea – which are essential for the economy – and to also support North Korea, which is Russia’s unavoidable strategic goal. Continue reading “The talks held in September 2018 between Kim Jong-Un and the South Korean President – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and denuclearization talks – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The issue of denuclearization of the whole Korean peninsula is currently at the core of the debate between North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China and the Russian Federation.

This has been seen – symbolically, but very clearly – in the very recent military parade in Pyongyang for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. In fact, there was not the traditional and strong emphasis on the North Korean nuclear and missile system, but rather a balanced representation of the Armed Forces and the various social components, to which the North Korean Socialist regime entrusts its hegemony in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which is a true hegemony, not a constraint.

Whoever wants to destabilize North Korea with the usual talk about liberalism would be in serious trouble.

Let us also consider the symbolism of the representation of cadres and relevant figures of the regime around Kim Jong-Un on the stage.

There was a large number of representatives who had participated in many events, while the very few newcomers were mingled with Kim Jong-Un’s usual aides and collaborators. Continue reading “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and denuclearization talks – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani held in Tehran on September 7, 2018 – Giancarlo Elia Valori

After the meeting of last April, Iranian President Rouhani, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met again in Teheran (and in Tabriz) on September 6-7, within the now usual setting of the Astana talks.

 The specific aim of these last negotiations was to normalize the Syrian situation in the long term, as well as to further promote the eradication of international terrorism and the stabilization of the infra-Syrian political process and finally to create the necessary conditions for a return of Syrian displaced people and refugees abroad.

 There are now innumerable peace meetings for war in Syria, which has been going on for about seven years.

In this case everything stems from the foreseeable failure of the “six-point peace plan for Syria” proposed by Kofi Annan in 2012, with the authorization of the Arab League and the United Nations.

  The first point of the peace plan proposed by Annan envisaged the commitment “to work for an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people” – and here I confine myself to quoting the text, whatever it may mean. Continue reading “The meeting between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani held in Tehran on September 7, 2018 – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The new connectivity to Eurasia opens the Korean peninsula to the world

Besides modernizing the Korean peninsula’s whole network, the railway cooperation between the two Koreas, ratified on June 26 last, will permit the connection to the Trans-Siberian Railway, which can be defined as the starting point of what is called “The Silk Road of the XXI Century” – in more precise terms the construction of a new “Silk Railway” as a bridge connecting two worlds, with a clear reference to the ancient Silk Road that united China with the territories of the Roman Empire. Instead, this rail network will connect South Korea to North Korea and – through the Trans-Siberian Railway – to Eurasia, so as to allow the fast movement of people, goods and resources.

This agreement seems to have been the real goal of the joint declaration between the two Koreas on April 27 last – the day of the historic Panmunjom Summit – to open up to the world.

It is a grand program that could represent the mainstay of a new economic roadmap for a sound and balanced development of the whole peninsula, which is also very rich in mineral resources. Continue reading “The “Silk Railway” leads to Pyongyang – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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