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The issue of peace in North Korea and Asia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Much has already been decided in the best way for peace on the Korean peninsula and, indirectly, in the South Pacific region and even for the US power projection onto Asia.

 In fact, after almost five years since the proclamation of his byungjin policy in March 2013, Kim Jong Un has announced “a new strategic policy line”.

 It is worth recalling that, in Kim Jong Un’s thought, byungjin is the parallel development of the economy and military and strategic research and supremacy.

 I make no secret of the fact that – as stated by the North Korea’s leadership in a letter sent to me – much has been done by me, who has tried to analyze the issue of North Korean nuclear and missile systems with the help of my long-standing friendship for North Korea and of the trust I have gained there over many years – trust that also many US friends have ensured to me. Continue reading “The issue of peace in North Korea and Asia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Syria’s future – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Many sources think that the most significant clashes in Syria are likely to end late this year.

 Probably the small clashes between the various ethnic groups and hence among their external points of reference  will not end yet. The bulk of armed actions, however, will certainly finish since now the areas of influence are stabilized.

 The first fact that stands out is that, despite everything, Bashar al-Assad’s forces have won.

 All the international actors operating on the ground – be they friends or foes – have no difficulty in recognizing it.

 Certainly neither Assad nor Russia alone have the strength to rebuild the country, but Western countries – especially those that have participated in the fight against Assad – and the other less involved countries plan to participate in the reconstruction process, with a view to influencing Syria, although peacefully this time.

 The military start of Assad’s victory was the Northwest campaign of the Syrian Arab Forces from October 2017 to February 2018. Continue reading “Syria’s future – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Demilitarization between the two Koreas – Giancarlo Elia Valori

At domestic level, Kim Jong-Un is pursuing two original and interesting policy lines within North Korea: the rise of a new generation to power and the evident and stable economic expansion.

 Under Kim Jong-Un’s leadership, the private segment of the North Korean economy has undergone great development and the new class of young people rising to power – who epitomize the general rejuvenation of the North Korean society – is also an unknown factor for the forthcoming talks between the two Koreas and the talks between the United States and North Korea.

 Certainly Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un rules without problems, but he shall consider the new climate prevailing within his Party.

 At military level, according to the data provided by the US intelligence services, North Korea has an arsenal of 36 nuclear warheads.

 Only in 2017 did North Korea fire 23 missiles.

 During the bilateral talks with South Korea, however, Kim Jong-Un also said he wanted to impose a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear missile launches between March and April 2018. Continue reading “Demilitarization between the two Koreas – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The current financial regulation in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The power of a newly established Chinese public organization, namely the Financial Stability and Development Committee, is growing. Said organization was created precisely on November 8, 2017.

 It is an important organization under the State Council’s direct control. Indeed, it is an office of the Council itself which will deal mainly with China’s financial stability and with all matters concerning economic development and monetary and capital stability.

 More specifically, the Committee will be tasked with deliberating major national programs for regulating the financial system, for organizing monetary policy with the Central Bank and for defining tax policies and the related fiscal and industrial actions.

 This Committee will also be responsible for analysing  international and domestic financial situations, identifying the greatest global financial systemic risks, as well as studying the related conditions and finally defining the ways for reaching  financial stability. Continue reading “The current financial regulation in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The de-dollarization in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The US dollar is so important in today’s economy for three main reasons: the huge amount of petrodollars; the use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the decision taken by US President Nixon in 1971 to end the dollar convertibility into gold.

The US currency is still a large part of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the IMF’s “paper money”.

A share ranging between 41% and 46% depending on the periods.

Petrodollars emerged when Henry Kissinger dealt with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, after “Black September” in Jordan.

The agreement was simple. Saudi Arabia had to accept only dollars as payments for the oil it sold, but was forced to invest that huge amount of US currency only in the US financial channels while, in return, the United States placed Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC neighbouring countries under its own military protection. Continue reading “The de-dollarization in China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Emotional contagion and the other psycho-political techniques for manipulating people in foreign policy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 As Leonardo da Vinci used to say: “If you are alone you belong entirely to yourself. If you are accompanied by even one companion you belong only half to yourself”.

 Later, in the positivist era, Gustave Le Bon – in his  Psichology of Crowds developed a concept whereby the crowd weakens all the individual’s rational abilities.

 The crowd unleashes the Id, destroys the Ego and makes the unconscious prevail in history.

 Also Freud – in his Group Psychology and the Analysis of the Ego” – shared that approach.

 Benito Mussolini was said to have a copy of Le Bon’s book on the nightstand, while Eduard Bernays, Sigmund Freud’s nephew, created advertising and modern public relations in the United States. It was the same great country where, as the George Washington pulled him into New York Harbour, Freud supposedly  remarked to Carl Jung, who accompanied him, “They do not realize that we are bringing them the plague”.

 The assumption of Bernays and of the commercial and advertising public relations he created is still the positivist one: to create a feeling of pleasure (or self-esteem) and then connect an object, a role, a person or a symbol to that same perception of pleasure – in such a way that, as Pavlov  taught us, the human brain can do without the real object and is activated anyway when a sign or a symbol is triggered off. Continue reading “Emotional contagion and the other psycho-political techniques for manipulating people in foreign policy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

China’s military doctrine with President Xi Jinping – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Which is President Xi Jinping’s military doctrine and his  “warfare rationale”?

 With a view to well understanding the evolution of Chinese warfare studies to date, however, we need to study the tradition of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the vision that the Communist Party of China (CPC) had in the history of warfare doctrine.

 Firstly, for China, the different terminologies used within NATO and, more generally, in Western military doctrines such as “global strategy”, “national security strategy” or “national defense strategy” are not separate concepts or ways of thinking, but are all subsumed in the Chinese general notion of “military strategy”.

 Again in Chinese terminology, in simpler terms, the strategy “guidelines” are the political-military policy lines developed by the CPC leadership.

 In these policy lines we can perceive the geopolitical threat that the CPC thinks to be closer and hence the likeliest type of future war that China must absolutely be ready to wage and fight. Continue reading “China’s military doctrine with President Xi Jinping – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The foreign policy proposals of the various Italian political parties – Giancarlo Elia Valori

While, in the so-called “First Republic”, Italian foreign policy was an essential tool in the practice and activity of the various political parties, exactly the opposite happens in the current so-called “Second Republic”.

 After the Cold War, it seems there is no longer a need for foreign and defence policies –  a bit like that US senator who asked for closing the CIA after the USSR fall.

 Just think that – as the former Italian President of the Republic, Francesco Cossiga, used to say – 50% of voters  rooted for the East.

  Aldo Moro was the leader who actually led the intelligence services politically – the services with which, for example, we could afford to secretly deal with Arafat and the countless movements of the Palestinian insurgency to be spared terrorist actions on our national territory.

 It is also worth recalling that the so-called “Lodo Moro” – an unwritten agreement introduced by Aldo Moro while Foreign Minister, which permitted Fatah and the other Palestinian resistance movements to move personnel, arms and explosives through Italy on condition that the Italian territory was spared attacks – was well-known also by Israel, who appreciated the Lodo and used it. Continue reading “The foreign policy proposals of the various Italian political parties – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

North Korea’s future geopolitics – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the phase immediately after the end of the 23rd Winter Olympics in PyeongChang – a site located in South Korea – North Korea’s new global strategy is much more innovative than we can imagine.

 In fact only the naivest analysts, who are almost always Westerners, were surprised at Kim Jong-Un’s “opening”  for the Winter Games organized in South Korea, which is allied with the United States.

 Indeed, the framework of North Korea’s new international relations is rapidly changing, after the presence of Kim Jong-Un’s sister, namely Kim Yo-Jong, at the opening ceremony of the Winter Games and the large North Korean delegation including as many as 550 athletes, cheerleaders, etc.

 North Korea has a significant presence in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Eritrea – and this will increase in the future – in addition to the well-known good relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan.

 In the future, North Korea will operate in Latin America and Southeast Asia, independently of China but without hampering China’s interests or, in the near future, Russia’s. Continue reading “North Korea’s future geopolitics – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Xi Jinping’s political and strategic line – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Based on the long and careful speech delivered by Chinese President Xi Jinping on New Year’s Eve, it is currently useful to identify his policy line and of the conceptual framework of his activity as statesman.

 From what we can currently read on the most widespread Western media, Xi Jinping’s policy line comes down to a simple and mechanistic “concentration of power” in the President’s hands or, worse, to the discovery of a “new Chinese authoritarianism”, characterized by the usual and banal request for some “opening” by the Chinese Party and State structures.

 The banality of good, we could say, by ironically paraphrasing the title of a very famous book by Hannah Arendt, namely The Banality of Evil.

 It is really strange that the Western theory of political representation can never go beyond a naive, rough and phenomenological pluralism or the childish fear of power in the hands of a Leader.

 Yet another example of a conceptual and philosophical crisis of the modern State in the West foreshadowing more severe and material destabilization. Continue reading “Xi Jinping’s political and strategic line – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Artificial intelligence and intelligence – Giancarlo Elia Valori

As was also clearly stated by Vladimir Putin on September 4, 2017: “whichever country leads the way in Artificial Intelligence research will be the ruler of the world”.

 According to Thomas Kuhn’s old, but still useful, epistemological model, every change of the scientific paradigm – rather than the emergence of new material discoveries – radically changes the visions of the world and hence strategic equilibria.

 Hence, first of all, what is Artificial Intelligence? It consists of a series of mathematical tools, but also of psychology, electronic technology, information technology  and computer science tools, through which a machine is taught to think as if it were a human being, but with the speed and security of a computer.

 The automatic machine must represent man’s knowledge, namely show it, thus enabling an external operator to change the process and understand its results within the natural language. Continue reading “Artificial intelligence and intelligence – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The war in the Golan Heights and in the Lebanon – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The framework of the clash on the borders between Israel, the Lebanon and Syria is currently much more complicated than it appears.

 Recently, namely in mid-January, a senior officer of the Israeli Defence Forces has publicly announced that Iran is organizing a peripheral command in the Lebanon, precisely in the Southern area – a region traditionally controlled by Hezbollah and now by most of the Lebanese regular army, which is traditionally funded by the United States and Saudi Arabia.

 The Lebanese Armed Forces are backed by the United States to the tune of over 1.5 billion dollars, but also by  Saudi Arabia (3.5 billion US dollars), which operates also with funding for security, intelligence and territorial police.

 Iran will grant additional funds to the Lebanese forces with a view to creating a stable link between Iran and the Mediterranean coast, which is also one of the grand strategy targets of the Shiite leadership in the Syrian war.

 This will certainly change the Saudi and US attitude towards the Lebanese Armed Forces. Continue reading “The war in the Golan Heights and in the Lebanon – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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