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The situation in Ukraine – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The conflict between the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian government is the point of greatest tension, but also of EU weakness  towards its East, as well as the point of greatest tension between Russia and Europe still today.

  The European Union cannot solve this problem, just because it currently has the same armies that ironically Stalin asked the Pope to have – hence it will be closed to its East.

 Unlike Jason and his Argonauts – owing to the clash going on in Ukraine –  Europe will not be able to find the “Golden Fleece”.

 And the “Golden Fleece” is the beginning of the Greek myth: Jason who travelled to Colchis to look for gold – an initiation theme – and married the sorceress Medea. Now Europe is depriving itself of the new way of communication with the land of Colchis to accept the orders of a power that is obviously doing its utmost to harm the EU, the Euro, the EU  exports, etc.

 Currently none of the two main parties, namely Russia and Ukraine, has any intention to implement or at least to formally comply with the Minsk II agreements of February 2015.

 In what did those agreements consist? It will be worth recalling the  origins and the development of the conflict.

 After the various “Orange Revolutions” of February 2014 – which were US operations – when the long wave of protests called the Euromaidan movement culminated in the removal of the regularly elected President Viktor Yanukovych, violent riots broke out in the Eastern part of the country – traditionally the region most linked to the Russian-speaking world and the Russian culture. Continue reading “The situation in Ukraine – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In early October, King Salman of Saudi Arabia – with 1,500 members of his private entourage and 459 tons of luggage – landed at the Vnukovo airport for the first official visit of a Saudi king to the Kremlin.

 At military level, Saudi Arabia has already bought from Russia the S-400 Triumph anti-missile system (NATO reporting name: SA-12 Growler), already fully operational in China, which can intercept aircraft and missiles at a speed up to 4.8 kilometers per second (17,000 kilometers per hour) and has the ability of intercepting up to 36 targets at the same time.

 In addition, the Saudi purchase of the anti-tank missile Kornet and other advanced weapon systems is already in an advanced phase of negotiations between the two countries.

 This is a deal worth 3 billion US dollars, but the sale of weapons is a fundamental strategic priority for Russia.

 According to the 2016 data, the Russian Federation produces over one fifth of the weapons sold in the world while, also thanks to Russia, India and China have now almost reached technological and military self-sufficiency.

 Hence Russia is looking for other markets to sell its weapons, with the consequent and immediate strategic and economic influences and constraints.

 Currently everything works thanks to the unquestionable success achieved so far in Syria. Continue reading “The agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Additional considerations on the North Korean strategy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

According to the best-informed US analysts, the response to North Korea’s  further military escalation should consist in Japan’s and South Korea’s nuclear rearmament.

 It would be the response, but also the explicit justification, for North Korea’s rearmament.

  According to the US military decision-makers, however, the preventive  conventional confrontation could be divided into four alternatives:

1) the launch of Tomahawk missiles from the land and sea borders, but certainly North Korea would respond immediately, by also using the approximately sixty tunnels in the territory of the South Republic and its underground military airports in the North.

2) Bombings on North Korea by Stealth aircraft which – as North Korea knows all too well –  can carry nuclear warheads. Also in this case, however, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea could react by hitting the US bombers directly or by launching limited missile attacks against US installations in South Korea.

3) The US aircraft launch of some Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), the new “bunker buster” bombs penetrating and destroying  tunnels,  hardened targets or targets buried deep underground – an action coupled with that of the “electromagnetic railguns” that could be fired by some US ships. A Hollywood action movie scenario having two limits: the low reliability of the two new weapons and the fact that North Korea has not only hidden, but also visible bases.

 Moreover, the visible bases can react to the US operations from the South or from the sea in a very short time, shorter than the duration of the US  attack itself. Continue reading “Additional considerations on the North Korean strategy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The new prospects of the Communist Party of China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Communist Party of China (CPC) – in the phase in which it is governed by Xi Jinping and by Prime Minister Li Kekiang – is changing rapidly.

 This is a geopolitical and strategic factor of great importance also for Europe and the United States.

 Just a few years before its centennial, the Party founded in Shanghai in 1921 is still a “hircocervus”, both for the Communist tradition resulting from the Third International and for the evolution and, sometimes, the disappearance of the Communist Parties in power in the Soviet Union, in its Eastern European satellite countries and in many Asian countries.

 Indeed, the CPC is both a large mass Party and a political organization that, following the Third International’s tradition, presides over the State and defines its political direction.

 Lenin thought of a small Party of militants and officials who developed the policy line and, through the State, imposed it on society.

 In fact, in the Soviet Union, the CPSU destroyed itself by entering civil society. Conversely, in China, the CPC grows stronger by acquiring and selecting the best elements of society and representing the great masses inside and above the State.

 We can here recall the sarcastic smiles and the biting jokes that the CPC leaders –  and, at the time, the Deng Xiaoping of the “Four Modernizations” was already in power – reserved for Gorbachev paying an official visit to China while the “Tien An Mien” rebellion of the students who wanted “democracy” was underway. Continue reading “The new prospects of the Communist Party of China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The strategic significance of the Syrian conflict – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Considering the quantity and virulence of the groups taking part in the Syrian war, which has been going on uninterruptedly for six years, in principle there are two possible scenarios.

 An unstable peace that will disrupt the Syrian political and territorial system – as is currently happening in the Lebanon – or a long war of attrition, as in the Balkans of the 1990s or currently in Ukraine or the Horn of Africa.

 A “long war” hiding the strategic and geopolitical void of those who have organized it.

 Initially the aim of the conflict was to prevent Syria from being open to the Iranian power projection onto the Mediterranean region but, in the event of a long war, no one will gain and no country will ever be in a position to obtain a geopolitical surplus from the current conflict in Syria.

 The cultural and military rifts are well-known: the division between Sunnis and Shiites – often craftily manipulated by both religious groups – the divide between religious and “secular” power – insofar as this distinction can be drawn in the Middle East – the division between the two emerging powers in the region, namely Turkey and Iran, and finally the division among the 68 old Western powers of the Coalition led by the United States and the Russian Federation.

  Hence the size and shape of the new Middle East will result from the analysis of the Syrian war.

  The West, which no longer has a true theory of war, interpret the clashes only through the headlines of its newspapers and the psychotic and irrational obsessions of its voters. Continue reading “The strategic significance of the Syrian conflict – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The significance of Iran’s presence in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

At least since 2014 the presence of Iranian forces in the Syrian war has certainly ensured both political stability and military success on the ground for Assad’s regime.

 Some Syrian sources maintain that since December 2013 Iran’s engagement in the Syrian conflict has cost at least 6 billion US dollars a year, while other Western sources think the financial support provided has been twice as much.

  With at least 3,200 soldiers and officers from the Revolutionary Guards and other Shiite semi-official organizations, composed mainly of Afghan and Pakistani militants, Iran is second only to the Russian Federation in terms of engagement in the Syrian war to support Assad.

 Moreover, Hezbollah – the Lebanese militant Shiite faction – is present in Syria with at least 4,500 soldiers and officers, but there are other Shiite groups, such as the People’s Mobilization Units (PMU), the former “popular defence brigades”, operating in the Syrian region.

 In all likelihood, it was Iran to persuade Russia to intervene in support of  Assad, but the logic of Russia’s presence in the Syrian war is much more complex than it may appear at first glance.

 In fact, the Russian Federation has placed the war against Daesh-Isis at the centre of its presence in the Syrian region, thus creating a new network of relations with the whole Arab world, including the one previously connected to the United States. Continue reading “The significance of Iran’s presence in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Il significato della presenza iraniana in Siria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Certamente, la presenza delle forze di Teheran, almeno dal 2014, nella attuale guerra siriana ha garantito al regime di Assad sia la stabilità politica che il successo militare sul terreno.

 Dal dicembre del 2013, alcune fonti siriane affermano che l’impegno iraniano nel conflitto siriano è costato almeno sei miliardi di dollari Usa ogni anno, mentre altre fonti occidentali ipotizzano un sostegno finanziario  addirittura doppio.

  Con almeno 3200 soldati e ufficiali delle Guardie della Rivoluzione e attraverso altre organizzazioni semiufficiali sciite, composte soprattutto da militanti di origine  afghana e pakistana, l’Iran è secondo solo alla Federazione Russa per impegno nella guerra siriana al fianco di Bashar el Assad.

 Hezbollah, la frazione sciita militante del Libano, è inoltre presente in Siria con almeno 4500 tra soldati e ufficiali, ma vi sono altri gruppi sciiti, PMU, le “brigate popolari”, operanti nel quadrante siriano.

 E’ stato con ogni probabilità l’Iran a convincere la Russia a intervenire a fianco di Bashar el Assad, ma la logica della presenza di Mosca nella guerra siriana è più complessa di quanto non appaia a prima vista.

 La Federazione Russa, infatti, ha posto al centro della sua presenza nel quadrante di Damasco la guerra al Daesh-Isis e, con questo, ha creato una nuova rete di rapporti con tutto il mondo arabo, anche con quello precedentemente collegato agli Usa. Continue reading “Il significato della presenza iraniana in Siria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Zapad 2017 – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Zapad 2017 exercise will begin on September 14, 2017.  It will be carried out jointly by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Belarus, as well as by other smaller allies.

 It will be a technical test to check the full interoperability between the Armed Forces of Russia, Belarus and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), namely Kazakhstan, Armenia, the above mentioned  Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

 It will also include military leaders from Afghanistan and Serbia as observers.

 Also Iran is a possible candidate for the CSTO and the vision of the Zapad 2017 operations, which will be present with some unofficial observers.

 Apart from China, considering the countries which founded  the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, only Uzbekistan is missing in the CSTO.

 Another essential geopolitical factor which is worth recalling is that in 2013, on the same day, Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

 Therefore the CSTO is basically the Russia-linked part of the strategic block which – pending the counter-terrorist and anti-jihadist struggle – merged into the China’s current and future area of interest.

 The “Zapad” (namely West) manoeuvres are already being prepared  – especially in Belarus – and will take place with at least 100,000 Russian and allied soldiers, with 13,000 Russian soldiers, 280 heavy artillery units and 25 Russian military aircraft. Continue reading “Zapad 2017 – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Jihadist terrorism in Italy. Exhortations and prophecies – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Moez al-Fezzani, a Tunisian citizen popularly known by his initial nom de guerre Abu Nassim, was arrested with other Daesh-Isis members in Sirte, between Rigdaleen and Al Jimail, Libya, on August 18, 2016.

 Already taken to trial in Italy for terrorist recruitment, Abu Nassim was obviously acquitted in Milan – a city which, since the time of the Mosque in Viale Jenner, is “the main centre of Al Qaeda in Europe”, as stated in a CIA report of ten years ago.

 The Islamic Cultural Institute (ICI) in Milan was created in 1988, upon the initiative of some members of the Egyptian movement Jamaa al Islamiya. It immediately became a center to gather, train and fund the Islamists going to fight in Bosnia.

 A stupid Western war enabling Alja Izetbegovic – the leader of the Bosnian Republic of Sarajevo, as well as author of a book prophetically entitled “Islamic fundamentalism” – to create an Islamist area in the Balkans serving the interests of Afghanistan, Chechnya, Al Qaeda (at the time, Bin Laden was often in Sarajevo) and Kosovars. Continue reading “Jihadist terrorism in Italy. Exhortations and prophecies – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Il ritorno dalla Russia del card. Parolin, Segretario di Stato vaticano – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Il bilancio sostanzialmente positivo.

E’ con questa formula che il card. Parolin ha sintetizzato la sua recentissima visita nella Federazione Russa.

Vi è la comunità cattolica in Russia, da tutelare, in primo luogo, con 300 parrocchie e 270 sacerdoti, per lo più non russi ma polacchi, lituani, tedeschi, ucraini e un Arcivescovo di Mosca, l’italiano Paolo Pezzi, uomo di “Comunione e Liberazione” ed esperto di questioni politiche, culturali, religiose russe.

Un brillante presule da sostenere, un attento conoscitore di cose russe e di teologia ortodossa.

Papa Francesco, lo ricordiamo, ha stretto la mano al Patriarca Kirill a L’Avana, lo scorso anno, nel primo incontro tra i due massimi rappresentanti dello scisma del 1054. Continue reading “Il ritorno dalla Russia del card. Parolin, Segretario di Stato vaticano – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

H.E. Card. Parolin Secretary of State goes to Russia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

For the 70th anniversary of the russian patriarch Cyrill and for the 80th anniversary of pope Francis, there have been many meetings between  the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic one.

Card. Parolin and the russian foreign ministry Lavrov, on the 2nd december 2016, met secretly for determining the timing and the political opportunities of an official visit of Pope Francis in Russia, a state visit that, in card. Parolin view, could throw the Catholic Church as the main mediator among the East and the West, mainly with China and Russia, not to forget the indian and central asian interests and geopolitics vis à vis the euro- and the american system.

Card. Parolin never forgets to remember, both to ruling classes and the people, that the European Union is lacking real rayonnement and effective political power, and the cardinal Secretary of State knows very well, as a men of the Church, that only the Roman christianity, in its old relation with the greek and russian tradition, that  by the way only the Vatican can build those “bridges” that neither the US nor the EU can build, now, with the ever increasing eastern and asian world. Continue reading “H.E. Card. Parolin Secretary of State goes to Russia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Macron’s global strategy in Africa and in the European Union – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Both Chirac and Sarkozy had five minutes to leave power, while François Hollande could even have five months to do so.

 In fact, at the time, eight Frenchmen out of ten approved his decision not to run for another term.

 As you may recall, part of President Hollande’s establishment did not accept automatically to lend a hand to Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister who wanted to join the “two Lefts”, the one resulting from Hamon’s  proposals for the primary election – a so-called gauche de la tradition –  and the one which was being shaped around Macron, with whom Valls had nothing in common at political level.

 Macron put together the moderate Left – the one of the old “American challenge” of Servan-Schreiber’s radicals – with the less archaic part of Socialism.

 At the beginning of presidential election, nobody knows how many  people will vote and, in particular, nobody knows the voting criteria yet.

 Nevertheless, for Emmanuel Macron – who was finally supported by  centrists, former non-voters and moderate leftists – politics is fully a marketing technique. Continue reading “Macron’s global strategy in Africa and in the European Union – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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