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Iran’s economic crisis and the impact on its strategy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

 As can be easily inferred, this leads to a high rate of unemployment and youth unemployment, in particular.

 As often happened in the past, there is also the regimes’ tendency to push the excess of working age population out of the country, also by means of war.

 Considering the official data of September-October 2018, in the Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran the average unemployment rate is 12.2%.

 According to the latest data, however, women’s unemployment rate is already equal to 19.8%, while the unofficial statistics of real unemployment among young people alone was 28.40% in the first quarter of 2018, with regional peaks of 35% and even 38% in some peripheral areas.

 Another secondary, but inevitable effect of youth unemployment is the brain drain, as a result of which every year 150,000-180,000 graduates leave Iran.

 A hidden tax that deprives Iran of 50 billion tax revenue, in addition to the loss of public (and family) costs for higher education. Continue reading “Iran’s economic crisis and the impact on its strategy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Israel in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Over the last two years alone, in complete silence, the Jewish State has already carried out over 200 airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

  North American unconfirmed sources also speak about Israeli support for Islamic “rebels” fighting against Bashar el Assad and his allies.

  They are supposedly 12 groups of so-called para-jihadist “rebels” operating in southern Syria, who oppose both the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and radical ISIS jihadist militants.

  Obviously the Israeli intelligence services closely monitor – with systems active 24 hours a day – the three bridges connecting the Golan Heights with Israel, which are constantly used by the Israeli armed forces to support both the Golan populations and the military operating permanently in those areas.

 Israel has named the “humanitarian support” to the region, including the aforementioned anti-Assad rebels, “Operation Good Neighbour”, but the real Israeli spearhead is the air missions in the Syrian skies, which have again much increased in recent times. Continue reading “Israel in Syria – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Qatar’s decision to leave OPEC – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Emirate of Qatar will leave OPEC as from January 1, 2019.

  The primary reason for this choice is the Emirate’s project to become the world leader in the natural gas market, raising its production from 77 million tons per year to 110 million tons. However, there is obviously also a geopolitical and energy decision underlying Qatar’s current choice.

 This is the Emirate’s final response to the boycott and blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia on Qatar in June 2017, with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Yemen, Maldives, the Libyan GNA, Egypt and Jordan – based on Saudi Arabia’s generic accusation whereby Qatar was supposed to sponsor and support “terrorism” on its own.

 The blockade was imposed two days after President Trump had met as many as 55 Heads of Arab and Muslim countries to build a sort of NATO equivalent, always against “terrorism” – an alliance to be set up immediately to counteract, above all, the Shiite and Iranian danger.

 Let us leave aside the twenty-eight pages taken from the report of the US Senate on September 11, which would definitively prove the connection between those Al-Qaeda operatives and the Saudi regime – as well as the many multiannual reports of private and public funding to the jihadists and finally the lines of credit opened again by eminent citizens of the Wahhabi Kingdom in favour of Al Baghdadi’s Syrian-Iraqi Caliphate.

 The Saudis, however, are too rich not to be believed, especially by the USA – hence the great blockade on Qatar succeeded also with the support of some Western countries.

 For the whole Middle East, their troops, like the US ones, reported to CENTCOM, at the Al Udeid base  having its headquarters precisely in Qatar. Continue reading “Qatar’s decision to leave OPEC – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The relations between Malta and Libya and economic crimes inside Libya – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Since the beginning of hostilities against Gaddafi, operations – carried out mainly by the French intelligence services – started from Malta to send weapons, intelligence, instructors and trainers to the “rebel” forces in Cyrenaica who were fighting the Rais.

  The French military reached the coast of Benghazi with two nuclear submarines and the Brigade Action of the intelligence services, while the links had already been established abroad, and sometimes just outside Rome – even with the help of the United States.

  I also watched the first internal documentaries of the anti-Gaddafi rebel forces, trained with materials and means which were usually available to the best hit squads of the Western intelligence services.

  It was hard to believe how the Libyan “rebels” were so able to use very refined weapons.

 The French agents also used “covert” flights to monitor the arrival and distribution of weapons, especially to avoid they could end up in the hands of the wrong people. Since the first attacks in Tripoli, the French agents had also provided to their “rebels” as many as 9.1 billion US dollars of weapons and had later continued to supply other weapons to their local champions, for large sums of money and always using Malta as a base. Continue reading “The relations between Malta and Libya and economic crimes inside Libya – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The failure of the Palermo Conference on Libya – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Why did the Conference on Libya organized by Prime Minister Conte’s government at Villa Igiea in Palermo fail?

Firstly, it was a chaotic and hastily organized Conference, with evident signs of oversimplification, which became evident both in the logistics and in the policy line.

At the time of Presidents Moro, Cossiga and Craxi, the Conference would have certainly been a real success. Why? Because, at that time, Italy still counted much in the Mediterranean region and was taken very seriously by everyone. Italy knew what its interests were, not the usual “seductive attractions” of peace, development, etc. – just to put it in Benedetto Croce’s words.

It would not have been possible for France and Great Britain  to pressurize and blackmail Italy to bomb a country, namely Gaddafi’s Libya, which was our always open merchant  bank. It was also our strategic partner in the Maghreb region and our military guarantee against the so-called Françafrique and the defender of the equilibria with Egypt and Algeria, as well as the protection of ENI wells from many dangers.

 The current Italian government has reduced the Libyan issue to a problem of mere reunification between the two parts, namely Cyrenaica’s area and Tripoli’s area, which is much loved by the United Nations, but no one knows why. Continue reading “The failure of the Palermo Conference on Libya – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Conference on Libya hosted in Palermo, Sicily – Giancarlo Elia Valori

It currently seems that the Conference on Libya scheduled in Palermo, Sicily, will finally be a predictable success for the Italian government.

 General Haftar, the powerful man of Cyrenaica (and currently also of Sirte) arrived in Rome on October 28 last for an informal visit which, however, was extremely useful for the Palermo Conference and for Italy’s future strategy in Libya.

 The Head of the old “Operation Dignity” will certainly be also in Palermo, while Russia will probably be represented by Medvedev or by the Deputy Foreign Minister, Bogdanov. Or even by Dimitri Peskov. Nevertheless, whoever of them will participate in the Conference will have President Putin’s personal instructions to follow.  Moreover, President Putin will follow the Conference debate in Sicily with extreme care.

 Russia’s goal is to stabilize its presence in Libya, regardless of the political results reached by the Palermo Conference, and hence to start a strategic relationship also with Fayez al-Sarraj and Misrata’s Seventh Brigade, as well as with the major tribes of the Tripoli area. This can be achieved above all with the Italian support.

 Nothing is more distant from the Russian interest than an exclusive bilateral relationship with General Haftar, of whom Russia has even minted the new coins with  Colonel Gaddafi’s profile. Continue reading “The Conference on Libya hosted in Palermo, Sicily – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In relazione, molto stretta, con la Belt and Road Initiative, il presidente Xi Jinping, nel maggio 2017, ha proposto la apertura annuale di una fiera commerciale che riguarda le importazioni in Cina.

 Segno che la “Iniziativa” è fortemente benefica per le economie asiatiche e europee che vi partecipano; ma segno anche che la Cina mantiene il suo tradizionale criterio di sviluppo, quello dell’equilibrio tra economia di mercato e controllo dello stato e, soprattutto, Pechino riafferma con la BRI e la Fiera il criterio della progressiva trasformazione in una economia aperta di tutto il sistema produttivo cinese.

 La Cina ha generato la sua crescita, colossale, con una grande, oggi impensabile in Occidente, quantità di investimenti pubblici.

 Organizzati soprattutto attraverso società pubbliche, talvolta meno profittevoli di quelle private ma, comunque, investimenti diretti verso obiettivi generali e nazionali.

 Il che ha prodotto un deficit pubblico elevato, anche per gli standard di sicurezza cinesi.  Allora, come si fa a equilibrare il deficit? Con le importazioni, come accade da sempre.

 Inoltre, la banca di emissione di Pechino ha sempre strettamente controllato la parità tra yuan e dollaro statunitense. Continue reading “China International Import Expo – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The clash between the United States and the Russian Federation on strategic nuclear weapons – Giancarlo Elia Valori

On October 20 last the US President, Donald J. Trump, stated that North America would withdraw from the INF Treaty on nuclear missile weapons, which means that Europe will be again the main base for the new intermediate and long-range weapon systems.

  Obviously the European ruling class, both at national and EU levels, has not yet said a single word about this new configuration of the threats and defences on our territory.

 President Trump referred specifically to the 1987 INF Treaty or, more precisely, to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 – a treaty that, in particular, banned the ground-launched nuclear missiles having a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometres.

The INF Treaty led to the complete elimination of almost 2,700 medium and short-range missiles, including 850 US ones and over 1,800 Soviet ones. As many may recall, it put an end to the tension between the United States and the Soviet Union just at the time when the latter deployed the new SS-20 missiles in Eastern Europe and, as a response, the former deployed its Cruise and Pershing missiles in the European NATO, in a phase characterized by a whirlwind of “pacifist” demonstrations. Continue reading “The clash between the United States and the Russian Federation on strategic nuclear weapons – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori

In the period from 2009 to 2013 when Hillary Clinton was US Secretary of State, Saudi Arabia contributed with at least 10 million US dollars to the Clinton Foundation.

  Especially in the phases when, incidentally, Hillary Clinton permitted the sale of advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia

  As stated by Prince Regent Mohammed Bin Salman in an interview released in 2016 to the Jordanian news agency “Petra”, Saudi Arabia also paid over 20% of Hillary Clinton’s election campaign.

  However, it also subsidized the other candidates to the US Presidency, although to a lesser extent.

  In the political campaign for the US Presidency, no foreign investor puts all his/her eggs in the same basket – just to follow a typical US piece of advice.

 Moreover, like Russia and other countries, also the Saudi Kingdom has always backed both US presidential candidates financially. Continue reading “The relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

Restructuring Libya’s finance and economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori

Last August the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) moved its Tripoli’s offices to the now famous Tripoli Tower.

 The traditional financial institution of Gaddafi’s regime currently manages approximately 67 billion US dollars, most of which are frozen due to the UN sanctions.

 Said sanctions shall be gradually removed and replaced with a system of market controls, as the Libyan economy finds its way.

  Right now that, after intimidation and serious and often armed threats, LIA has moved to the safer Tripoli Tower.

 However, how was LIA established and, above all, what is it today? The Fund, which has some characteristics typical of the oil countries’ sovereign funds, was created in 2006, just as the EU and US economic and trade sanctions against Gaddafi’s regime were slowly being lifted.

  The idea underlying the operation was simple and rational, just like the one that had long pushed Norway to create the Government Pension Fund Global, i.e. using the oil profits to avoid the post-energy crisis in Libya and preserve the living standards of the good times. Continue reading “Restructuring Libya’s finance and economy – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The economic and intelligence tension between the United States and China is currently at its peak since the end of the Cold War. During that phase, however, China had also taken actions to oppose the Soviet Union, with the opening to the United States and the “ping-pong diplomacy” in the early 1970s, as well as its tacit support to Kissinger’s resolution of all tensions between the United States and the Southeast Asian countries.

 At the time China wanted to help the United States to regionalize – in Asia – its historic “Northern enemy,” namely Russia.

 In his “Three Worlds Theory”, Mao Zedong placed it together with the United States in the “First World”, as both imperialist powers, while he regarded China as the current and future leader of the whole Third World fighting against the “metropolises” of the First World.

  Said project has not changed, it has only changed its language and its procedures.

 Now that the bilateral tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China is at its highest, the rationale for this new Sino-American scenario is simple. China wants to achieve global geopolitical hegemony, while the United States led by President Donald J. Trump wants to rebuild its new economic and purely financial hegemony, and hence resort to protectionist practices. Continue reading “The issue of intelligence between the United States and China – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori

The Russian, Chinese and Mongolian exercises known as Vostok 2018 have been particularly important both from a military and tactical viewpoint and due to their geopolitical significance.

 Vostok 2018 (a Russian term generally translated as “East”) is an operation reaffirming the new strategic unity between Russia and China. Hence it conveys a very clear message to the West that it would be good for the Atlantic Alliance not to disregard or neglect.

 The message is the following: if NATO wants to attack them or, in any case, enter the areas of Russian-Chinese interest in the Heartland, the response of the Sino-Slavic axis will be very harsh, to the point of raising the threshold of a possible Western attack to an intolerable level. Hence the unavoidable response from the “East” will be unbearable at technical, financial and political levels for the attacker alone.

 With this really impressive operation – although the number of the forces on the field has not yet be fully defined ex post – Russia certainly wants to demonstrate that the United States cannot attack without expecting severe responses from the Russian Federation, probably capable of blocking the US itself – considering that, in this case, there would be an immediate reunification with the Chinese forces, with the Mongolian Armed Forces and probably also with other forces of the Central Asian region, which is certainly a fact not to be disregarded. Continue reading “The Vostok 2018 exercises and their strategic significance – Giancarlo Elia Valori”

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